Year-End Hiring Plans Edge Up in the U.S. According to the Quarter 4 2014 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

Global employers anticipate stronger finish to the year than 12 months ago

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Sep 09, 2014, 02:00 ET

MILWAUKEE, Sept. 9, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, released today by ManpowerGroup, reflects sustained momentum in hiring plans among U.S. employers for Quarter 4 2014, as U.S. employers report the strongest Net Employment Outlook since Quarter 1 2008, when the Outlook was +16%. The Quarter 4 2014 Net Employment Outlook of +15% is up from +14% in Quarter 3 2014 and from +13% during Quarter 4 2013.

Globally, hiring plans are mostly positive with employers expecting to finish the year on a more confident note than they did in 2013, as outlooks strengthen in 29 countries and territories year-over-year and soften in just 12. Forecasts, however, are softer when compared with Q3. Fourth-quarter hiring confidence is strongest in India, Taiwan and New Zealand, while the weakest and only negative forecasts are reported in Spain, Italy, Ireland, the Czech Republic and Finland.

U.S. Results Summary

Of the more than 18,000 U.S. employers surveyed, 19 percent anticipate an increase in staff levels in their Quarter 4 2014 hiring plans, while anticipated staff reductions are consistent with past fourth quarter results at 7 percent. Seventy-two percent of employers expect no change in their hiring plans. The final 2 percent of employers are undecided about their hiring intentions, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +12%. When seasonally adjusted, the Net Employment Outlook becomes +15%.

Slight Upswing in Hiring Levels Anticipated in U.S. By 18,000 Surveyed Employers

Quarter	Increase Staff Levels	Decrease Staff Levels	Maintain Staff Levels	Don't Know	Net Employment Outlook *(deseasonalized)*
Q4 2014 (current)	19%	7%	72%	2%	15%
Q3 2014 (previous quarter)	22%	4%	71%	3%	14%
Q4 2013 (one year ago)	18%	8%	72%	2%	13%

"During 2014, we have seen incremental growth across industries and regions as employers rebuild their internal teams and implement new operational strategies," said ManpowerGroup CEO Jonas Prising. "The lack of any significant peaks or valleys in the survey results reflects a slow and steady climb that continues to define the employment landscape, and an enduring optimism that will carry us into 2015."

U.S. Hiring Plans by Regions, Industry Sectors and States/Metro Areas

The fourth quarter research shows that U.S. employers anticipate hiring intentions to stay relatively stable quarter-over-quarter across all regions, and increase slightly compared to one year ago at this time. Three regions report the strongest Outlooks in more than six years:

Employers in the Midwest report a Net Employment Outlook of +15%, which is the strongest since Quarter 4 2007 when the Outlook was +18%.
Employers in the South report a Net Employment Outlook of +15%, which is the strongest since Quarter 2 2008 when the Outlook was +17%.
Employers in the West report a Net Employment Outlook of +16%, which is the strongest since Quarter 1 2008 when the Outlook was +22%.

Employers have a positive Outlook in all 13 industry sectors included in the survey, with Leisure & Hospitality, Mining and Wholesale & Retail Trade employers reporting the strongest hiring intentions.

Among the 50 states, employers in North Dakota, Arizona, Mississippi, Texas and Wisconsin indicate the strongest Net Employment Outlooks, while Alaska, Maine, New Jersey and Arkansas project the weakest Outlooks.

Among employers in the 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas, the strongest job prospects are expected in:

Dallas
Houston
McAllen, Texas
Phoenix
San Jose, Calif.

The weakest Outlooks are projected in:

Akron, Ohio
Little Rock, Ark.
Philadelphia
Spokane, Wash.
Providence, R.I.
Hartford, Conn.
Albany, N.Y.

Global Results Summary

More than 65,000 employers were interviewed to measure anticipated global labor market activity. Employers in 36 of 42 countries and territories surveyed expect to add to their workforces in the October-December time frame, compared to 37 of 42 in Q3 and 38 of 42 in Q2.
There are noteworthy developments in individual country and territory reports. The Greek forecast continues the climb that started two years ago. While employers in Brazil and China expect to boost payrolls, the fourth quarter survey suggests they will do so at a pace far below historic levels. Labor market momentum has stalled in Ireland and Spain as outlooks in both countries slip once again into negative territory.
Employers in 18 of 24 countries in the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region forecast payroll gains, while employers in five countries expect staffing levels to decline. Turkish employers report the region's most optimistic hiring plan, while the weakest forecast is reported in Spain.
Forecasts are stronger in three Asia Pacific countries and territories in comparison to Q3, weaker in another three and are unchanged in two. The strongest hiring plans — as well as the most optimistic across the globe — are reported by employers in India, while the weakest Asia Pacific forecast is reported in mainland China.
Employers across the 10 countries surveyed in the Americas continue to report positive hiring intentions, but hiring activity is expected to be marginally weaker in comparisons to both Q3 and one year ago. Employers in Colombia report the strongest fourth-quarter hiring plans, while job seekers in Costa Rica can expect the softest jobs growth.

"Although it is difficult to detect a pronounced overriding trend in the global labor market, employers are generally telling us they intend to hire more robustly at the end of 2014 than they did at the end of 2013," added Prising. "Hiring patterns remain mixed across Europe and are trending softer in the Americas, but job opportunities remain positive across Asia. The continuing upward trend in Greece, which began in Q4 2012, is a particularly positive sign as we look ahead to 2015."

Complete results for the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey are available for download. Data specific to the U.S. can be found here, and results for all 42 countries surveyed are available here.

The Quarter 1 2015 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on Tues., Dec. 9, 2014. Sign-up here to receive e-mail notification when the survey is available each quarter.

*The Net Employment Outlook is derived by subtracting the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity from the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.

About ManpowerGroup

ManpowerGroup™ (NYSE: MAN) has been the world's workforce expert, creating innovative workforce solutions, for more than 65 years. As workforce experts, we connect more than 600,000 men and women to meaningful work across a wide range of skills and industries every day. Through our ManpowerGroup family of brands — Manpower®, Experis™, Right Management ® and ManpowerGroup™ Solutions— we help more than 400,000 clients in 80 countries and territories address their critical talent needs, providing comprehensive solutions to resource, manage and develop talent. In 2014, ManpowerGroup was named one of the World's Most Ethical Companies for the fourth consecutive year and one of Fortune's Most Admired Companies, confirming our position as the most trusted and admired brand in the industry. See how ManpowerGroup makes powering the world of work humanly possible: www.manpowergroup.com.

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SOURCE ManpowerGroup