US consumers show signs of strength ahead of critical holiday spending season -- Bain & Company/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes

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Nov 20, 2024, 09:10 ET

Outlook and intent to spend gauges for upper income US consumers show particular strength, with positive trends also seen among lower income consumers, as findings mark public launch of the Bain/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes

BOSTON, Nov. 20, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The US consumer is showing signs of strength, especially among upper income earners who represent the majority of discretionary consumer spending by Americans, the latest results of the Bain & Company/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes, released today, show.

November results of the Consumer Health Indexes (CHI) show a rise in the survey data's headline gauge of the US consumer outlook to 102.0, up 1.1 points from October's reading.

The outlook score among upper income consumers, earning more than $100k a year, shows particular strength, rising 2 points month-on-month in November after a 1.9-point increase in October, and has now risen by 3.6 points over the last three months. The CHI gauge of consumers' intent to spend for upper income earners also continues to trend upwards, climbing by 1.2 points month-on-month in November and by 7.1 points over the last three months.

Lower income consumers, earning up to $50k a year, are reporting less robust but still positive trends in the CHI results. The intent to spend score for this group is up by 5.3 points month-on-month in November, and by 7.6 points in the last three months. However, alongside this, the consumer outlook score for the group has remained essentially flat in the past two months, making the strength of reading for the lower income group more tentative.

In contrast to upper and lower income earners, middle income Americans (earning $50-100k a year) at present still show no signs of building strength. Both the consumer outlook and intent to spend score for this group remained flat in the past month.

The findings are the key insights from the first edition of the Bain/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes to be publicly released. Bain & Company and Dynata have run the indexes since 2017 to provide business decision-makers with in-depth information and analysis on consumer trends for near-term and medium-term strategy and planning. Previously the data from the monthly CHI survey was provided to clients privately.

Karen Harris, partner at Bain & Company and managing director of the firm's Macro Trends Group, commented: "As we enter the critical spending weeks for the US holiday retail season upper-income earners – who represent the majority of discretionary spending in the US – are becoming increasingly positive in their outlook and are telling us they intend to spend more freely.

"Upper income consumers' outlook is buoyed by positive investment portfolio performance. Barring a significant correction, this demographic group's outlook is likely to remain strong. The enthusiasm recorded in upper income earners' outlook seems to be having an impact of their spending intentions, where we've seen a four-month positive trend in our data. If you are hoping for a positive holiday retail spending season, you would want to see emerging strength from this group, which represents over 50% of discretionary spending in the US.

"Lower income spending intentions have also been trending positively over the last three months, but we continue to look for corresponding positive increases in this group's outlook on their wages. If we observe these increases, we will have more confidence that these elevated spending intent levels could be supported over the long-term.

"If there is cautionary flag in our data this month, it comes from middle-income households. Their outlook and spend-intent measurements have trended slightly down over the past couple of months. With much of this group's financial wealth tied up in their houses, and with those markets often summarized as 'frozen,' we can't say we expect to see a sudden favorable shift on the horizon."

For more details and the full report (PDF), please click here or get in touch via the media contacts below.

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About Bain & Company

Bain & Company is a global consultancy that helps the world's most ambitious change makers define the future.

Across 65 cities in 40 countries, we work alongside our clients as one team with a shared ambition to achieve extraordinary results, outperform the competition, and redefine industries. We complement our tailored, integrated expertise with a vibrant ecosystem of digital innovators to deliver better, faster, and more enduring outcomes. Our 10-year commitment to invest more than $1 billion in pro bono services brings our talent, expertise, and insight to organizations tackling today's urgent challenges in education, racial equity, social justice, economic development, and the environment. We earned a gold rating from EcoVadis, the leading platform for environmental, social, and ethical performance ratings for global supply chains, putting us in the top 2% of all companies. Since our founding in 1973, we have measured our success by the success of our clients, and we proudly maintain the highest level of client advocacy in the industry.

About Dynata

Dynata is the world's largest first-party data company for insights, activation, and measurement. With a reach that encompasses 70 million consumers and business professionals globally and an extensive library of individual profile attributes collected through surveys, Dynata is the cornerstone for precise, trustworthy quality data. The company has built innovative data services and solutions around its robust first-party data offering to bring the voice of the customer to the entire marketing continuum — from uncovering insights to activating campaigns and measuring cross-channel marketing return on investment. Dynata serves more than 6,000 market research, media and advertising agencies, publishers, consulting and investment firms, and corporate customers in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. Learn more at www.dynata.com.

SOURCE Bain & Company