TrueCar Releases Analysis of January Industry Sales
2023 industry outlook appears promising as inventory rebounds
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Jan. 27, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,067,763 units in January 2023, up 6.5% from a year ago and down 6.6% from December 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 16 million, up 7% from January 2022. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 895,491 units, down 1% from a year ago and down almost 10% from December 2022.
"Consumers continue to face rising new-vehicle prices across the industry," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "However, the pace has slowed as inventory for many high-demand vehicles grows. Fewer vehicles are seeing mark-ups (% of sales over MSRP), particularly for import brands which faced pronounced scarcity during the peak of the shortages."
"Tesla's drastic price reductions in January had a similar effect on their sales as traditional OEM incentives. We'll see if the demand increase will last as other OEMs react," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.
- Total sales for January 2023 are expected to be up 6.5% from a year ago and down 6.6% from December 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for January 2023 are expected to be up 74% from a year ago and up 13% from December 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 3% from a year ago and down 2% from December 2022.
- Total SAAR is expected to be up 7% from a year ago at about 16 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for January 2023 are expected to reach almost 2.5 million, down 21% from a year ago and even with December 2022.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 6.9% compared to December 2022 at 6.7% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 10%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for January 2023 is 69 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 70 months.
- Full year 2023 sales are expected at 15 million units.
Total Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Jan 2023 Forecast |
Jan 2022 Actual |
Dec 2022 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
32,404 |
24,024 |
42,797 |
34.9 % |
34.9 % |
-24.3 % |
-14.8 % |
Daimler |
24,561 |
20,400 |
31,355 |
20.4 % |
20.4 % |
-21.7 % |
-11.9 % |
Ford |
142,485 |
142,445 |
177,868 |
0.0 % |
0.0 % |
-19.9 % |
-9.9 % |
GM |
184,177 |
142,574 |
220,166 |
29.2 % |
29.2 % |
-16.3 % |
-5.9 % |
Honda |
87,755 |
73,949 |
93,843 |
18.7 % |
18.7 % |
-6.5 % |
5.2 % |
Hyundai |
60,167 |
51,510 |
78,230 |
16.8 % |
16.8 % |
-23.1 % |
-13.5 % |
Kia |
46,323 |
42,488 |
60,422 |
9.0 % |
9.0 % |
-23.3 % |
-13.8 % |
Nissan |
58,273 |
59,742 |
65,103 |
-2.5 % |
-2.5 % |
-10.5 % |
0.7 % |
Stellantis |
105,010 |
125,265 |
125,037 |
-16.2 % |
-16.2 % |
-16.0 % |
-5.5 % |
Subaru |
45,874 |
44,158 |
56,760 |
3.9 % |
3.9 % |
-19.2 % |
-9.1 % |
Tesla |
55,142 |
40,165 |
44,923 |
37.3 % |
37.3 % |
22.7 % |
38.1 % |
Toyota |
140,523 |
158,676 |
180,906 |
-11.4 % |
-11.4 % |
-22.3 % |
-12.6 % |
Volkswagen Group |
39,212 |
37,971 |
50,115 |
3.3 % |
3.3 % |
-21.8 % |
-12.0 % |
Industry |
1,067,763 |
1,002,304 |
1,286,598 |
6.5 % |
6.5 % |
-17.0 % |
-6.6 % |
Retail Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Jan 2023 Forecast |
Jan 2022 Actual |
Dec 2022 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
29,948 |
22,609 |
39,271 |
32.5 % |
32.5 % |
-23.7 % |
-14.2 % |
Daimler |
22,207 |
18,610 |
29,147 |
19.3 % |
19.3 % |
-23.8 % |
-14.3 % |
Ford |
107,196 |
110,545 |
132,667 |
-3.0 % |
-3.0 % |
-19.2 % |
-9.1 % |
GM |
139,694 |
128,124 |
181,815 |
9.0 % |
9.0 % |
-23.2 % |
-13.6 % |
Honda |
86,150 |
73,567 |
91,217 |
17.1 % |
17.1 % |
-5.6 % |
6.3 % |
Hyundai |
56,583 |
50,844 |
77,320 |
11.3 % |
11.3 % |
-26.8 % |
-17.7 % |
Kia |
43,149 |
39,882 |
58,389 |
8.2 % |
8.2 % |
-26.1 % |
-16.9 % |
Nissan |
48,877 |
53,153 |
53,314 |
-8.0 % |
-8.0 % |
-8.3 % |
3.1 % |
Stellantis |
69,560 |
101,987 |
100,020 |
-31.8 % |
-31.8 % |
-30.5 % |
-21.8 % |
Subaru |
44,529 |
43,267 |
55,293 |
2.9 % |
2.9 % |
-19.5 % |
-9.4 % |
Tesla |
49,732 |
39,782 |
37,632 |
25.0 % |
25.0 % |
32.2 % |
48.7 % |
Toyota |
125,692 |
148,495 |
161,875 |
-15.4 % |
-15.4 % |
-22.4 % |
-12.6 % |
Volkswagen Group |
33,883 |
37,350 |
45,931 |
-9.3 % |
-9.3 % |
-26.2 % |
-17.0 % |
Industry |
895,491 |
905,130 |
1,115,659 |
-1.1 % |
-1.1 % |
-19.7 % |
-9.7 % |
Fleet Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Jan 2023 Forecast |
Jan 2022 Actual |
Dec 2022 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
2,456 |
1,415 |
3,526 |
73.5 % |
73.5 % |
-30.4 % |
-21.6 % |
Daimler |
2,354 |
1,790 |
2,208 |
31.5 % |
31.5 % |
6.6 % |
19.9 % |
Ford |
35,289 |
31,900 |
45,201 |
10.6 % |
10.6 % |
-21.9 % |
-12.2 % |
GM |
44,483 |
14,450 |
38,351 |
207.8 % |
207.8 % |
16.0 % |
30.5 % |
Honda |
1,605 |
382 |
2,626 |
320.5 % |
320.5 % |
-38.9 % |
-31.2 % |
Hyundai |
3,584 |
666 |
910 |
438.2 % |
438.2 % |
293.8 % |
343.0 % |
Kia |
3,174 |
2,606 |
2,033 |
21.8 % |
21.8 % |
56.1 % |
75.6 % |
Nissan |
9,396 |
6,589 |
11,789 |
42.6 % |
42.6 % |
-20.3 % |
-10.3 % |
Stellantis |
35,450 |
23,278 |
25,017 |
52.3 % |
52.3 % |
41.7 % |
59.4 % |
Subaru |
1,345 |
891 |
1,467 |
50.9 % |
50.9 % |
-8.3 % |
3.1 % |
Tesla |
5,410 |
383 |
7,291 |
1312.4 % |
1312.4 % |
-25.8 % |
-16.5 % |
Toyota |
14,831 |
10,181 |
19,031 |
45.7 % |
45.7 % |
-22.1 % |
-12.3 % |
Volkswagen Group |
5,329 |
621 |
4,184 |
757.7 % |
757.7 % |
27.4 % |
43.3 % |
Industry |
168,306 |
96,976 |
167,397 |
73.6 % |
73.6 % |
0.5 % |
13.1 % |
Fleet Penetration |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Jan 2023 Forecast |
Jan 2022 Actual |
Dec 2022 Actual |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
7.6 % |
5.9 % |
8.2 % |
28.6 % |
-8.0 % |
Daimler |
9.6 % |
8.8 % |
7.0 % |
9.3 % |
36.1 % |
Ford |
24.8 % |
22.4 % |
25.4 % |
10.6 % |
-2.5 % |
GM |
24.2 % |
10.1 % |
17.4 % |
138.3 % |
38.7 % |
Honda |
1.8 % |
0.5 % |
2.8 % |
254.3 % |
-34.6 % |
Hyundai |
6.0 % |
1.3 % |
1.2 % |
360.7 % |
412.0 % |
Kia |
6.9 % |
6.1 % |
3.4 % |
11.7 % |
103.6 % |
Nissan |
16.1 % |
11.0 % |
18.1 % |
46.2 % |
-11.0 % |
Stellantis |
33.8 % |
18.6 % |
20.0 % |
81.7 % |
68.7 % |
Subaru |
2.9 % |
2.0 % |
2.6 % |
45.3 % |
13.4 % |
Tesla |
9.8 % |
1.0 % |
16.2 % |
928.8 % |
-39.6 % |
Toyota |
10.6 % |
6.4 % |
10.5 % |
64.5 % |
0.3 % |
Volkswagen Group |
13.6 % |
1.6 % |
8.3 % |
730.6 % |
62.8 % |
Industry |
15.8 % |
9.7 % |
13.0 % |
62.9 % |
21.1 % |
Total Market Share |
|||
Manufacturer |
Jan 2023 Forecast |
Jan 2022 Actual |
Dec 2022 Actual |
BMW |
3.0 % |
2.4 % |
3.3 % |
Daimler |
2.3 % |
2.0 % |
2.4 % |
Ford |
13.3 % |
14.2 % |
13.8 % |
GM |
17.2 % |
14.2 % |
17.1 % |
Honda |
8.2 % |
7.4 % |
7.3 % |
Hyundai |
5.6 % |
5.1 % |
6.1 % |
Kia |
4.3 % |
4.2 % |
4.7 % |
Nissan |
5.5 % |
6.0 % |
5.1 % |
Stellantis |
9.8 % |
12.5 % |
9.7 % |
Subaru |
4.3 % |
4.4 % |
4.4 % |
Tesla |
5.2 % |
4.0 % |
3.5 % |
Toyota |
13.2 % |
15.8 % |
14.1 % |
Volkswagen Group |
3.7 % |
3.8 % |
3.9 % |
95.7 % |
96.1 % |
95.4 % |
|
Retail Market Share |
|||
Manufacturer |
Jan 2023 Forecast |
Jan 2022 Actual |
Dec 2022 Actual |
BMW |
3.3 % |
2.5 % |
3.5 % |
Daimler |
2.5 % |
2.1 % |
2.6 % |
Ford |
12.0 % |
12.2 % |
11.9 % |
GM |
15.6 % |
14.2 % |
16.3 % |
Honda |
9.6 % |
8.1 % |
8.2 % |
Hyundai |
6.3 % |
5.6 % |
6.9 % |
Kia |
4.8 % |
4.4 % |
5.2 % |
Nissan |
5.5 % |
5.9 % |
4.8 % |
Stellantis |
7.8 % |
11.3 % |
9.0 % |
Subaru |
5.0 % |
4.8 % |
5.0 % |
Tesla |
5.6 % |
4.4 % |
3.4 % |
Toyota |
14.0 % |
16.4 % |
14.5 % |
Volkswagen Group |
3.8 % |
4.1 % |
4.1 % |
95.7 % |
95.9 % |
95.4 % |
|
ATP |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Jan 2023 Forecast |
Jan 2022 Actual |
Dec 2022 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$68,949 |
$62,949 |
$67,993 |
9.5 % |
1.4 % |
Daimler |
$77,902 |
$75,602 |
$74,992 |
3.0 % |
3.9 % |
Ford |
$54,810 |
$49,599 |
$55,873 |
10.5 % |
-1.9 % |
GM |
$51,388 |
$51,741 |
$52,565 |
-0.7 % |
-2.2 % |
Honda |
$36,742 |
$35,683 |
$37,141 |
3.0 % |
-1.1 % |
Hyundai |
$37,610 |
$36,834 |
$37,063 |
2.1 % |
1.5 % |
Kia |
$34,728 |
$34,391 |
$35,256 |
1.0 % |
-1.5 % |
Nissan |
$37,206 |
$34,389 |
$37,211 |
8.2 % |
0.0 % |
Stellantis |
$55,136 |
$52,755 |
$55,989 |
4.5 % |
-1.5 % |
Subaru |
$35,072 |
$35,003 |
$35,655 |
0.2 % |
-1.6 % |
Toyota |
$40,480 |
$39,463 |
$40,175 |
2.6 % |
0.8 % |
Volkswagen Group |
$50,345 |
$49,508 |
$51,358 |
1.7 % |
-2.0 % |
Industry |
$45,184 |
$43,790 |
$46,031 |
3.2 % |
-1.8 % |
$1,394 |
-$847 |
||||
Incentives |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Jan 2023 Forecast |
Jan 2022 Actual |
Dec 2022 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$1,910 |
$2,795 |
$2,030 |
-31.7 % |
-5.9 % |
Daimler |
$2,345 |
$2,083 |
$2,239 |
12.6 % |
4.7 % |
Ford |
$1,155 |
$2,191 |
$1,095 |
-47.3 % |
5.5 % |
GM |
$1,457 |
$2,046 |
$1,384 |
-28.8 % |
5.3 % |
Honda |
$969 |
$1,249 |
$973 |
-22.5 % |
-0.5 % |
Hyundai |
$885 |
$1,136 |
$1,062 |
-22.1 % |
-16.7 % |
Kia |
$495 |
$1,753 |
$522 |
-71.8 % |
-5.2 % |
Nissan |
$1,448 |
$2,010 |
$1,434 |
-28.0 % |
0.9 % |
Stellantis |
$2,091 |
$2,498 |
$1,996 |
-16.3 % |
4.8 % |
Subaru |
$469 |
$986 |
$465 |
-52.4 % |
0.9 % |
Toyota |
$609 |
$1,141 |
$610 |
-46.7 % |
-0.2 % |
Volkswagen Group |
$1,594 |
$1,963 |
$1,541 |
-18.8 % |
3.4 % |
Industry |
$1,441 |
$1,804 |
$1,333 |
-20.1 % |
8.1 % |
-$362 |
$108 |
||||
Incentives as % of ATP |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Jan 2023 Forecast |
Jan 2022 Actual |
Dec 2022 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
2.8 % |
4.4 % |
3.0 % |
-37.6 % |
-7.2 % |
Daimler |
3.0 % |
2.8 % |
3.0 % |
9.2 % |
0.8 % |
Ford |
2.1 % |
4.4 % |
2.0 % |
-52.3 % |
7.6 % |
GM |
2.8 % |
4.0 % |
2.6 % |
-28.3 % |
7.7 % |
Honda |
2.6 % |
3.5 % |
2.6 % |
-24.7 % |
0.6 % |
Hyundai |
2.4 % |
3.1 % |
2.9 % |
-23.7 % |
-17.9 % |
Kia |
1.4 % |
5.1 % |
1.5 % |
-72.1 % |
-3.8 % |
Nissan |
3.9 % |
5.8 % |
3.9 % |
-33.4 % |
1.0 % |
Stellantis |
3.8 % |
4.7 % |
3.6 % |
-19.9 % |
6.4 % |
Subaru |
1.3 % |
2.8 % |
1.3 % |
-52.5 % |
2.6 % |
Toyota |
1.5 % |
2.9 % |
1.5 % |
-48.0 % |
-1.0 % |
Volkswagen Group |
3.2 % |
4.0 % |
3.0 % |
-20.2 % |
5.5 % |
Industry |
3.2 % |
4.1 % |
2.9 % |
-22.6 % |
10.1 % |
Revenue |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Jan 2023 Forecast |
Jan 2022 Actual |
Dec 2022 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
Industry |
$48,245,810,311 |
$43,890,800,180 |
$59,223,502,944 |
9.9 % |
-18.5 % |
(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
SOURCE TrueCar.com
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