TrueCar Releases Analysis of February Industry Sales
Inventory remains stable amid continuing microchip shortage
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Feb. 25, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,071,377 units in February 2022, down 10% from a year ago and up 7% from January 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14.2 million, down 11% from February 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 935,604 units, down 12% from a year ago and up 4% from January 2022.
"After a volatile 2021 in terms of pricing and supply, this month we're seeing signs of stability. From a supply standpoint, we're seeing industry new listings roughly in line with January. Additionally, from a pricing standpoint things appear to be settling into a new equilibrium with the smallest month-over-month average price change in at least a year," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar.
"This month we are seeing the lowest levels of leasing since the onset of the pandemic when there was a proliferation of extended term loans. Historically, leasing has been the go-to option for shoppers looking for the lowest payment but over the past year we have seen that shift," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "For shoppers configuring vehicles on TrueCar we're now seeing lower average payments for 72-month loans than 36-month leases."
Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):
- Total sales for February 2022 are expected to be down 10% from a year ago and up 7% from January 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for February 2022 are expected to be up 3% from a year ago and up 30% from January 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Incentive spend is down 53% from last year.
- Average transaction price is projected to be up 15% from a year ago and down about 1% from January 2022.
- Total SAAR is expected to be down 11% from a year ago at 14.2 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for February 2022 are expected to reach 3.2 million, down 9% from a year ago and up 8% from January 2022.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.5% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.4%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for February 2022 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.
Total Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2022 Forecast |
Feb 2021 Actual |
Jan 2022 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
24,332 |
26,393 |
24,024 |
-7.8% |
-7.8% |
1.3% |
1.3% |
Daimler |
19,927 |
20,317 |
20,400 |
-1.9% |
-1.9% |
-2.3% |
-2.3% |
Ford |
136,021 |
161,834 |
142,445 |
-16.0% |
-16.0% |
-4.5% |
-4.5% |
GM |
165,610 |
191,846 |
142,574 |
-13.7% |
-13.7% |
16.2% |
16.2% |
Honda |
82,027 |
106,328 |
73,949 |
-22.9% |
-22.9% |
10.9% |
10.9% |
Hyundai |
58,475 |
50,735 |
51,510 |
15.3% |
15.3% |
13.5% |
13.5% |
Kia |
46,811 |
48,062 |
42,488 |
-2.6% |
-2.6% |
10.2% |
10.2% |
Nissan |
63,335 |
86,138 |
59,742 |
-26.5% |
-26.5% |
6.0% |
6.0% |
Stellantis |
140,377 |
151,912 |
125,265 |
-7.6% |
-7.6% |
12.1% |
12.1% |
Subaru |
52,002 |
48,300 |
44,158 |
7.7% |
7.7% |
17.8% |
17.8% |
Tesla |
42,105 |
21,550 |
40,165 |
95.4% |
95.4% |
4.8% |
4.8% |
Toyota |
167,319 |
184,249 |
158,676 |
-9.2% |
-9.2% |
5.4% |
5.4% |
Volkswagen Group |
36,919 |
46,846 |
37,971 |
-21.2% |
-21.2% |
-2.8% |
-2.8% |
Industry |
1,071,377 |
1,196,008 |
1,002,006 |
-10.4% |
-10.4% |
6.9% |
6.9% |
Retail Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2022 Forecast |
Feb 2021 Actual |
Jan 2022 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
23,767 |
25,170 |
23,618 |
-5.6% |
-5.6% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Daimler |
18,881 |
19,510 |
19,983 |
-3.2% |
-3.2% |
-5.5% |
-5.5% |
Ford |
101,977 |
133,486 |
115,636 |
-23.6% |
-23.6% |
-11.8% |
-11.8% |
GM |
128,488 |
169,301 |
124,119 |
-24.1% |
-24.1% |
3.5% |
3.5% |
Honda |
80,999 |
105,612 |
73,637 |
-23.3% |
-23.3% |
10.0% |
10.0% |
Hyundai |
54,158 |
46,218 |
50,967 |
17.2% |
17.2% |
6.3% |
6.3% |
Kia |
42,719 |
45,710 |
40,907 |
-6.5% |
-6.5% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
Nissan |
53,160 |
67,638 |
49,289 |
-21.4% |
-21.4% |
7.9% |
7.9% |
Stellantis |
114,002 |
126,068 |
106,028 |
-9.6% |
-9.6% |
7.5% |
7.5% |
Subaru |
50,748 |
47,214 |
42,512 |
7.5% |
7.5% |
19.4% |
19.4% |
Tesla |
41,920 |
21,550 |
40,151 |
94.5% |
94.5% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
Toyota |
159,320 |
172,198 |
140,160 |
-7.5% |
-7.5% |
13.7% |
13.7% |
Volkswagen Group |
36,130 |
40,821 |
37,429 |
-11.5% |
-11.5% |
-3.5% |
-3.5% |
Industry |
935,604 |
1,064,728 |
897,288 |
-12.1% |
-12.1% |
4.3% |
4.3% |
Fleet Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2022 Forecast |
Feb 2021 Actual |
Jan 2022 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
565 |
1,223 |
406 |
-53.8% |
-53.8% |
39.3% |
39.3% |
Daimler |
1,046 |
807 |
417 |
29.6% |
29.6% |
150.7% |
150.7% |
Ford |
34,044 |
28,348 |
26,809 |
20.1% |
20.1% |
27.0% |
27.0% |
GM |
37,122 |
22,545 |
18,455 |
64.7% |
64.7% |
101.1% |
101.1% |
Honda |
1,028 |
716 |
312 |
43.6% |
43.6% |
229.4% |
229.4% |
Hyundai |
4,317 |
4,517 |
543 |
-4.4% |
-4.4% |
694.4% |
694.4% |
Kia |
4,092 |
2,352 |
1,581 |
74.0% |
74.0% |
158.9% |
158.9% |
Nissan |
10,175 |
18,500 |
10,453 |
-45.0% |
-45.0% |
-2.7% |
-2.7% |
Stellantis |
26,375 |
25,844 |
19,237 |
2.1% |
2.1% |
37.1% |
37.1% |
Subaru |
1,254 |
1,086 |
1,646 |
15.5% |
15.5% |
-23.8% |
-23.8% |
Tesla |
185 |
- |
14 |
1251.0% |
1251.0% |
||
Toyota |
7,999 |
12,051 |
18,516 |
-33.6% |
-33.6% |
-56.8% |
-56.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
789 |
6,025 |
542 |
-86.9% |
-86.9% |
45.7% |
45.7% |
Industry |
135,773 |
131,280 |
104,718 |
3.4% |
3.4% |
29.7% |
29.7% |
Fleet Penetration |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2022 Forecast |
Feb 2021 Actual |
Jan 2022 Actual |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
2.3% |
4.6% |
1.7% |
-49.9% |
37.5% |
Daimler |
5.2% |
4.0% |
2.0% |
32.2% |
156.6% |
Ford |
25.0% |
17.5% |
18.8% |
42.9% |
33.0% |
GM |
22.4% |
11.8% |
12.9% |
90.7% |
73.2% |
Honda |
1.3% |
0.7% |
0.4% |
86.1% |
197.0% |
Hyundai |
7.4% |
8.9% |
1.1% |
-17.1% |
599.8% |
Kia |
8.7% |
4.9% |
3.7% |
78.6% |
135.0% |
Nissan |
16.1% |
21.5% |
17.5% |
-25.2% |
-8.2% |
Stellantis |
18.8% |
17.0% |
15.4% |
10.4% |
22.3% |
Subaru |
2.4% |
2.2% |
3.7% |
7.3% |
-35.3% |
Tesla |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
1188.7% |
|
Toyota |
4.8% |
6.5% |
11.7% |
-26.9% |
-59.0% |
Volkswagen Group |
2.1% |
12.9% |
1.4% |
-83.4% |
49.8% |
Industry |
12.7% |
11.0% |
10.5% |
15.5% |
21.3% |
Total Market Share |
|||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2022 Forecast |
Feb 2021 Actual |
Jan 2022 Actual |
BMW |
2.3% |
2.2% |
2.4% |
Daimler |
1.9% |
1.7% |
2.0% |
Ford |
12.7% |
13.5% |
14.2% |
GM |
15.5% |
16.0% |
14.2% |
Honda |
7.7% |
8.9% |
7.4% |
Hyundai |
5.5% |
4.2% |
5.1% |
Kia |
4.4% |
4.0% |
4.2% |
Nissan |
5.9% |
7.2% |
6.0% |
Stellantis |
13.1% |
12.7% |
12.5% |
Subaru |
4.9% |
4.0% |
4.4% |
Tesla |
3.9% |
1.8% |
4.0% |
Toyota |
15.6% |
15.4% |
15.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
3.4% |
3.9% |
3.8% |
96.6% |
95.7% |
96.1% |
|
Retail Market Share |
|||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2022 Forecast |
Feb 2021 Actual |
Jan 2022 Actual |
BMW |
2.5% |
2.4% |
2.6% |
Daimler |
2.0% |
1.8% |
2.2% |
Ford |
10.9% |
12.5% |
12.9% |
GM |
13.7% |
15.9% |
13.8% |
Honda |
8.7% |
9.9% |
8.2% |
Hyundai |
5.8% |
4.3% |
5.7% |
Kia |
4.6% |
4.3% |
4.6% |
Nissan |
5.7% |
6.4% |
5.5% |
Stellantis |
12.2% |
11.8% |
11.8% |
Subaru |
5.4% |
4.4% |
4.7% |
Tesla |
4.5% |
2.0% |
4.5% |
Toyota |
17.0% |
16.2% |
15.6% |
Volkswagen Group |
3.9% |
3.8% |
4.2% |
96.9% |
95.8% |
96.3% |
|
ATP |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2022 Forecast |
Feb 2021 Actual |
Jan 2022 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$61,979 |
$58,682 |
$62,415 |
5.6% |
-0.7% |
Daimler |
$75,184 |
$63,174 |
$75,051 |
19.0% |
0.2% |
Ford |
$48,441 |
$45,349 |
$48,794 |
6.8% |
-0.7% |
GM |
$51,574 |
$42,789 |
$51,143 |
20.5% |
0.8% |
Honda |
$35,490 |
$30,737 |
$34,690 |
15.5% |
2.3% |
Hyundai |
$36,989 |
$30,965 |
$35,567 |
19.5% |
4.0% |
Kia |
$33,048 |
$29,448 |
$34,079 |
12.2% |
-3.0% |
Nissan |
$32,948 |
$29,173 |
$34,150 |
12.9% |
-3.5% |
Stellantis |
$52,661 |
$43,538 |
$52,294 |
21.0% |
0.7% |
Subaru |
$34,258 |
$31,062 |
$35,310 |
10.3% |
-3.0% |
Toyota |
$40,204 |
$35,646 |
$39,813 |
12.8% |
1.0% |
Volkswagen Group |
$46,378 |
$42,923 |
$46,303 |
8.0% |
0.2% |
Industry |
$43,776 |
$38,163 |
$44,182 |
14.7% |
-0.9% |
$5,614 |
-$406 |
||||
Incentives |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2022 Forecast |
Feb 2021 Actual |
Jan 2022 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$2,242 |
$5,238 |
$2,795 |
-57.2% |
-19.8% |
Daimler |
$1,774 |
$3,948 |
$2,083 |
-55.1% |
-14.9% |
Ford |
$1,786 |
$3,350 |
$2,184 |
-46.7% |
-18.2% |
GM |
$1,929 |
$4,533 |
$2,046 |
-57.5% |
-5.7% |
Honda |
$1,186 |
$2,365 |
$1,249 |
-49.9% |
-5.1% |
Hyundai |
$1,083 |
$2,268 |
$1,136 |
-52.3% |
-4.7% |
Kia |
$1,403 |
$2,677 |
$1,753 |
-47.6% |
-19.9% |
Nissan |
$1,888 |
$3,758 |
$2,010 |
-49.8% |
-6.1% |
Stellantis |
$2,462 |
$4,628 |
$2,498 |
-46.8% |
-1.4% |
Subaru |
$897 |
$1,321 |
$986 |
-32.1% |
-9.0% |
Toyota |
$981 |
$2,548 |
$1,141 |
-61.5% |
-14.0% |
Volkswagen Group |
$2,020 |
$3,714 |
$1,963 |
-45.6% |
2.9% |
Industry |
$1,619 |
$3,429 |
$1,804 |
-52.8% |
-10.3% |
-$1,810 |
-$186 |
||||
Incentives as % of ATP |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2022 Forecast |
Feb 2021 Actual |
Jan 2022 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
3.6% |
8.9% |
4.5% |
-59.5% |
-19.2% |
Daimler |
2.4% |
6.2% |
2.8% |
-62.3% |
-15.0% |
Ford |
3.7% |
7.4% |
4.5% |
-50.1% |
-17.6% |
GM |
3.7% |
10.6% |
4.0% |
-64.7% |
-6.5% |
Honda |
3.3% |
7.7% |
3.6% |
-56.6% |
-7.2% |
Hyundai |
2.9% |
7.3% |
3.2% |
-60.0% |
-8.4% |
Kia |
4.2% |
9.1% |
5.1% |
-53.3% |
-17.4% |
Nissan |
5.7% |
12.9% |
5.9% |
-55.5% |
-2.6% |
Stellantis |
4.7% |
10.6% |
4.8% |
-56.0% |
-2.1% |
Subaru |
2.6% |
4.3% |
2.8% |
-38.4% |
-6.2% |
Toyota |
2.4% |
7.1% |
2.9% |
-65.9% |
-14.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.4% |
8.7% |
4.2% |
-49.7% |
2.7% |
Industry |
3.7% |
9.0% |
4.1% |
-58.8% |
-9.5% |
Revenue |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Feb 2022 Forecast |
Feb 2021 Actual |
Jan 2022 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
Industry |
$46,900,691,381 |
$45,642,691,291 |
$44,270,878,912 |
2.8% |
5.9% |
(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
SOURCE TrueCar.com
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