TrueCar Forecasts Third Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales for July 2021
Inventory Shortages are Bringing Incentives Down and Raising Transaction Prices
SANTA MONICA, Calif., July 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,292,064 units in July 2021, up just 1% from a year ago but down 8% vs. June 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 14.7 million, staying on par with July 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,171,277 units, about even with a year ago and a decrease of 7% from June 2021.
"Increasing pressure on new car inventory continues to drive the car buying landscape in July. Lower inventory is likely creating a drag on sales and driving up transaction prices. It is also leading to more would-be new car buyers opting for used cars, which in turn is contributing to the surge in used car prices," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "However, there are still deals out there, and TrueCar is a great way to navigate the current landscape and cast a wider net to find those deals," added Woolard.
"In July we expect to see things continue to cool since the recent new vehicle sales peak in April. Despite cooling from recent months, many brands still show improvement compared to 2020. Volkswagen in particular is looking strong in July, propelled in part by the all-new Taos and ID.4 which are resonating well with buyers," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.
Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):
- Total sales for July 2021 are expected to be up 1% from a year ago and down 8% from June 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for July 2021 are expected to be up 16% from a year ago and down 14% from June 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Incentive spend is down 36% from last year.
- Average transaction price is projected to be up 5% from a year ago and up .2% from June 2021.
- Total SAAR is expected to remain about the same from a year ago at 14.7 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for July 2021 are expected to reach 3.7 million, down 4% from a year ago and about even with June 2021.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.5% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.5%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for July 2021 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 69 months.
Total Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Jul 2021 Forecast |
Jul 2020 Actual |
Jun 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
33,969 |
22,711 |
34,872 |
49.6% |
44.0% |
-2.6% |
-9.8% |
Daimler |
24,576 |
26,850 |
24,347 |
-8.5% |
-11.9% |
0.9% |
-6.5% |
Ford |
116,502 |
174,978 |
114,677 |
-33.4% |
-35.9% |
1.6% |
-5.9% |
GM |
202,932 |
204,756 |
204,782 |
-0.9% |
-4.6% |
-0.9% |
-8.2% |
Honda |
151,587 |
125,450 |
153,122 |
20.8% |
16.4% |
-1.0% |
-8.3% |
Hyundai |
78,226 |
58,934 |
76,519 |
32.7% |
27.8% |
2.2% |
-5.3% |
Kia |
68,358 |
52,479 |
68,486 |
30.3% |
25.4% |
-0.2% |
-7.6% |
Nissan |
76,230 |
73,463 |
88,642 |
3.8% |
-0.1% |
-14.0% |
-20.4% |
Stellantis |
140,068 |
157,025 |
136,334 |
-10.8% |
-14.1% |
2.7% |
-4.9% |
Subaru |
45,685 |
51,458 |
42,877 |
-11.2% |
-14.5% |
6.5% |
-1.3% |
Tesla |
23,734 |
15,800 |
22,869 |
50.2% |
44.7% |
3.8% |
-3.9% |
Toyota |
206,520 |
168,791 |
209,721 |
22.4% |
17.8% |
-1.5% |
-8.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
60,973 |
47,724 |
61,251 |
27.8% |
23.0% |
-0.5% |
-7.8% |
Industry |
1,292,064 |
1,227,420 |
1,300,873 |
5.3% |
1.4% |
-0.7% |
-8.0% |
Retail Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Jul 2021 Forecast |
Jul 2020 Actual |
Jun 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
33,404 |
22,341 |
34,276 |
49.5% |
44.0% |
-2.5% |
-9.8% |
Daimler |
23,530 |
26,166 |
23,849 |
-10.1% |
-13.4% |
-1.3% |
-8.6% |
Ford |
86,019 |
138,872 |
93,140 |
-38.1% |
-40.4% |
-7.6% |
-14.5% |
GM |
173,961 |
183,945 |
178,935 |
-5.4% |
-8.9% |
-2.8% |
-10.0% |
Honda |
149,962 |
124,387 |
152,480 |
20.6% |
16.1% |
-1.7% |
-8.9% |
Hyundai |
72,518 |
57,530 |
70,650 |
26.1% |
21.4% |
2.6% |
-5.0% |
Kia |
63,128 |
51,326 |
65,938 |
23.0% |
18.4% |
-4.3% |
-11.4% |
Nissan |
67,581 |
66,400 |
73,163 |
1.8% |
-2.0% |
-7.6% |
-14.5% |
Stellantis |
130,497 |
136,782 |
114,221 |
-4.6% |
-8.1% |
14.2% |
5.8% |
Subaru |
44,840 |
50,436 |
41,278 |
-11.1% |
-14.4% |
8.6% |
0.6% |
Tesla |
23,569 |
15,800 |
22,861 |
49.2% |
43.6% |
3.1% |
-4.5% |
Toyota |
187,140 |
163,509 |
185,259 |
14.5% |
10.2% |
1.0% |
-6.5% |
Volkswagen Group |
60,184 |
47,208 |
60,350 |
27.5% |
22.8% |
-0.3% |
-7.7% |
Industry |
1,171,277 |
1,127,219 |
1,170,134 |
3.9% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
-7.3% |
Fleet Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Jul 2021 Forecast |
Jul 2020 Actual |
Jun 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
565 |
370 |
596 |
52.9% |
47.2% |
-5.2% |
-12.3% |
Daimler |
1,046 |
684 |
498 |
52.9% |
47.2% |
110.0% |
94.5% |
Ford |
30,483 |
36,106 |
21,537 |
-15.6% |
-18.7% |
41.5% |
31.1% |
GM |
28,971 |
20,811 |
25,847 |
39.2% |
34.1% |
12.1% |
3.8% |
Honda |
1,625 |
1,063 |
642 |
52.9% |
47.2% |
153.0% |
134.2% |
Hyundai |
5,708 |
1,404 |
5,869 |
306.6% |
291.5% |
-2.7% |
-10.0% |
Kia |
5,230 |
1,153 |
2,548 |
353.6% |
336.8% |
105.3% |
90.1% |
Nissan |
8,649 |
7,063 |
15,479 |
22.5% |
17.9% |
-44.1% |
-48.3% |
Stellantis |
9,571 |
20,243 |
22,113 |
-52.7% |
-54.5% |
-56.7% |
-59.9% |
Subaru |
845 |
1,022 |
1,599 |
-17.3% |
-20.4% |
-47.1% |
-51.1% |
Tesla |
165 |
- |
8 |
2016.2% |
1859.5% |
||
Toyota |
19,380 |
5,282 |
24,462 |
266.9% |
253.3% |
-20.8% |
-26.6% |
Volkswagen Group |
789 |
516 |
901 |
52.9% |
47.2% |
-12.4% |
-18.9% |
Industry |
120,787 |
100,201 |
130,739 |
20.5% |
16.1% |
-7.6% |
-14.5% |
Fleet Penetration |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Jul 2021 Forecast |
Jul 2020 Actual |
Jun 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
1.7% |
1.6% |
1.7% |
2.2% |
-2.7% |
Daimler |
4.3% |
2.5% |
2.0% |
67.0% |
108.1% |
Ford |
26.2% |
20.6% |
18.8% |
26.8% |
39.3% |
GM |
14.3% |
10.2% |
12.6% |
40.5% |
13.1% |
Honda |
1.1% |
0.8% |
0.4% |
26.5% |
155.5% |
Hyundai |
7.3% |
2.4% |
7.7% |
206.3% |
-4.9% |
Kia |
7.7% |
2.2% |
3.7% |
248.3% |
105.7% |
Nissan |
11.3% |
9.6% |
17.5% |
18.0% |
-35.0% |
Stellantis |
6.8% |
12.9% |
16.2% |
-47.0% |
-57.9% |
Subaru |
1.8% |
2.0% |
3.7% |
-6.9% |
-50.4% |
Tesla |
0.7% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
1939.1% |
|
Toyota |
9.4% |
3.1% |
11.7% |
199.9% |
-19.5% |
Volkswagen Group |
1.3% |
1.1% |
1.5% |
19.6% |
-12.1% |
Industry |
9.3% |
8.2% |
10.1% |
14.5% |
-7.0% |
Total Market Share |
|||
Manufacturer |
Jul 2021 Forecast |
Jul 2020 Actual |
Jun 2021 Actual |
BMW |
2.6% |
1.9% |
2.7% |
Daimler |
1.9% |
2.2% |
1.9% |
Ford |
9.0% |
14.3% |
8.8% |
GM |
15.7% |
16.7% |
15.7% |
Honda |
11.7% |
10.2% |
11.8% |
Hyundai |
6.1% |
4.8% |
5.9% |
Kia |
5.3% |
4.3% |
5.3% |
Nissan |
5.9% |
6.0% |
6.8% |
Stellantis |
10.8% |
12.8% |
10.5% |
Subaru |
3.5% |
4.2% |
3.3% |
Tesla |
1.8% |
1.3% |
1.8% |
Toyota |
16.0% |
13.8% |
16.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.7% |
3.9% |
4.7% |
95.1% |
96.2% |
95.2% |
|
Retail Market Share |
|||
Manufacturer |
Jul 2021 Forecast |
Jul 2020 Actual |
Jun 2021 Actual |
BMW |
2.9% |
2.0% |
2.9% |
Daimler |
2.0% |
2.3% |
2.0% |
Ford |
7.3% |
12.3% |
8.0% |
GM |
14.9% |
16.3% |
15.3% |
Honda |
12.8% |
11.0% |
13.0% |
Hyundai |
6.2% |
5.1% |
6.0% |
Kia |
5.4% |
4.6% |
5.6% |
Nissan |
5.8% |
5.9% |
6.3% |
Stellantis |
11.1% |
12.1% |
9.8% |
Subaru |
3.8% |
4.5% |
3.5% |
Tesla |
2.0% |
1.4% |
2.0% |
Toyota |
16.0% |
14.5% |
15.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
5.1% |
4.2% |
5.2% |
95.3% |
96.2% |
95.4% |
|
ATP |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Jul 2021 Forecast |
Jul 2020 Actual |
Jun 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$57,024 |
$58,212 |
$58,570 |
-2.0% |
-2.6% |
Daimler |
$56,048 |
$60,586 |
$56,585 |
-7.5% |
-0.9% |
Ford |
$46,626 |
$43,304 |
$44,561 |
7.7% |
4.6% |
GM |
$44,749 |
$41,068 |
$44,408 |
9.0% |
0.8% |
Honda |
$31,149 |
$30,058 |
$31,075 |
3.6% |
0.2% |
Hyundai |
$31,074 |
$28,808 |
$30,333 |
7.9% |
2.4% |
Kia |
$28,085 |
$24,887 |
$27,783 |
12.9% |
1.1% |
Nissan |
$31,258 |
$28,435 |
$30,945 |
9.9% |
1.0% |
Stellantis |
$47,943 |
$42,206 |
$47,412 |
13.6% |
1.1% |
Subaru |
$31,276 |
$30,292 |
$31,887 |
3.2% |
-1.9% |
Toyota |
$35,264 |
$34,012 |
$35,398 |
3.7% |
-0.4% |
Volkswagen Group |
$41,614 |
$40,186 |
$42,050 |
3.6% |
-1.0% |
Industry |
$38,188 |
$36,432 |
$38,097 |
4.8% |
0.2% |
Incentives |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Jul 2021 Forecast |
Jul 2020 Actual |
Jun 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$4,269 |
$5,479 |
$4,452 |
-22.1% |
-4.1% |
Daimler |
$3,226 |
$5,560 |
$3,280 |
-42.0% |
-1.6% |
Ford |
$2,251 |
$4,075 |
$2,479 |
-44.8% |
-9.2% |
GM |
$3,336 |
$5,561 |
$4,023 |
-40.0% |
-17.1% |
Honda |
$1,985 |
$2,661 |
$2,096 |
-25.4% |
-5.3% |
Hyundai |
$1,720 |
$2,442 |
$1,884 |
-29.6% |
-8.7% |
Kia |
$2,265 |
$3,711 |
$2,603 |
-39.0% |
-13.0% |
Nissan |
$3,112 |
$4,556 |
$3,025 |
-31.7% |
2.8% |
Stellantis |
$2,827 |
$4,763 |
$2,812 |
-40.6% |
0.6% |
Subaru |
$1,345 |
$1,855 |
$1,395 |
-27.5% |
-3.6% |
Toyota |
$1,882 |
$2,733 |
$1,916 |
-31.1% |
-1.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
$3,381 |
$4,508 |
$3,421 |
-25.0% |
-1.2% |
Industry |
$2,529 |
$3,986 |
$2,732 |
-36.5% |
-7.4% |
Incentives as % of ATP |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Jul 2021 Forecast |
Jul 2020 Actual |
Jun 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
7.5% |
9.4% |
7.6% |
-20.5% |
-1.5% |
Daimler |
5.8% |
9.2% |
5.8% |
-37.3% |
-0.7% |
Ford |
4.8% |
9.4% |
5.6% |
-48.7% |
-13.2% |
GM |
7.5% |
13.5% |
9.1% |
-44.9% |
-17.7% |
Honda |
6.4% |
8.9% |
6.7% |
-28.0% |
-5.5% |
Hyundai |
5.5% |
8.5% |
6.2% |
-34.7% |
-10.9% |
Kia |
8.1% |
14.9% |
9.4% |
-45.9% |
-13.9% |
Nissan |
10.0% |
16.0% |
9.8% |
-37.9% |
1.8% |
Stellantis |
5.9% |
11.3% |
5.9% |
-47.7% |
-0.6% |
Subaru |
4.3% |
6.1% |
4.4% |
-29.8% |
-1.7% |
Toyota |
5.3% |
8.0% |
5.4% |
-33.6% |
-1.4% |
Volkswagen Group |
8.1% |
11.2% |
8.1% |
-27.6% |
-0.1% |
Industry |
6.6% |
10.9% |
7.2% |
-39.5% |
-7.6% |
Revenue |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Jul 2021 Forecast |
Jul 2020 Actual |
Jun 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
Industry |
$49,341,554,560 |
$44,717,708,837 |
$49,559,399,807 |
10.3% |
-0.4% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.
Related Links
WANT YOUR COMPANY'S NEWS FEATURED ON PRNEWSWIRE.COM?
Newsrooms &
Influencers
Digital Media
Outlets
Journalists
Opted In
Share this article