SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar.com, the authority on new car pricing, today released its September 2010 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
- New light vehicle sales (including fleet) in the U.S. for September 2010 is expected to be 951,382 units, up nearly 28 percent from September 2009 and a decrease of 5 percent from August 2010 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The September 2010 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 11.66 million new car sales, up from 11.47 in August 2010
- Retail sales are down nearly 8 percent compared to August 2010 and up nearly 26 percent from September 2009
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 21 percent of total industry sales
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,683 in September 2010, which represents a decrease of 3 percent from August 2010 and a 2 percent decrease from September 2009
- Used car sales* is estimated to be 3,288,000, down 16.6 percent from August 2010 and up 0.6 percent from September 2009. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3.45 for September 2010
"Used car sales is an important factor when forecasting the automotive industry," said Jesse Toprak, VP of Industry Trends and Insight for TrueCar.com. "Looking at both new and used car sales provides a more complete picture of the overall health of the automotive industry."
TrueCar.com is reporting the following about new light vehicle sales and incentive spending in September 2010:
- Sales are expected to decrease 5 percent from August 2010, but increase nearly 28 percent from September 2009
- GM is estimated to have its third-lowest market share ever at nearly 18 percent
- Hyundai/Kia is estimated to have their largest market share ever at 8.9 percent
- Incentives decreased due to better production management from manufacturers as most late-model new vehicles are off dealership lots
"Historically, the average drop is 10 percent from August to September, so the lack of a double-digit drop this month could be a sign of relative strengthening in the market," Toprak continued. "But consumers continue to seek value-oriented brands such as Hyundai or Kia due to a lack of clarity in the economy."
Forecasts for the top seven manufacturers for September 2010:
Market Share Forecast |
||||
Manufacturer |
September 2010 Forecast |
August 2010 |
September 2009 |
|
Chrysler |
9.7% |
10% |
8.4% |
|
Ford |
16.3% |
15.8% |
14.7% |
|
GM |
18% |
18.6% |
20.8% |
|
Honda |
10.9% |
10.9% |
10.4% |
|
Nissan |
7.5% |
7.7% |
7.4% |
|
Toyota |
15.6% |
14.9% |
16.9% |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
8.9% |
8.6% |
7.1% |
|
Incentive Spending Forecast |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Sept. 2010 |
Change vs. Aug. |
Change vs. Sept. |
Total Incentive |
|
Chrysler |
$3,787 |
1.8% |
-22.9% |
$349,557,342 |
|
Ford |
$2,797 |
-5.8% |
7.4% |
$434,224,556 |
|
GM |
$3,403 |
-2.4% |
-10.6% |
$581,506,967 |
|
Honda |
$2,166 |
-4.8% |
68.1% |
$225,349,818 |
|
Nissan |
$2,980 |
-4.0% |
10.4% |
$213,258,047 |
|
Toyota |
$1,870 |
-8.2% |
38.1% |
$277,614,259 |
|
Hyundai/Kia |
$1,855 |
0.8% |
-5.3% |
$157,175,580 |
|
Industry |
$2,683 |
-3.2% |
-2.0% |
$2,552,179,857 |
|
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
About TrueCar
TrueCar is the authority in new car prices. We show car buyers and car dealers how much people actually paid for a particular car in a specific local area. With TrueCar pricing, both new car buyers and new car dealers can know at any time what is considered a good or great price on a new car. Consumers no longer need to walk into a dealership partially informed and fully suspicious – using TrueCar they walk in knowing the price of a fair deal. Dealers benefit by TrueCar's real-time, unbiased information about marketplace pricing, helping them price cars for increased sales, and ultimately gaining market share over other dealers. Our innovative new car pricing service is offered free of charge on our website at www.truecar.com, on our mobile site at mobile.truecar.com, and via syndication of our tools and pricing data to leading automotive research sites throughout the web.
About TrueCar Data
TrueCar obtains data directly from numerous sources including automotive dealers, technology companies, data aggregators, and analytics companies within the automotive space. We also acquire vehicle configuration data, customer and dealer incentives data, financing and loan data, vehicle registration and insurance data, and much, much more. TrueCar is insatiable about data with our goal to find 100% of all purchase transactions, even if that means finding the same transaction multiple times from multiple sources within the car-buying ecosystem. Our data is among the most timely and comprehensive in the industry, as we are able to process most car sales within a week of the actual sales date, and have a substantial fraction on the site within 48 hours of the actual sale. TrueCar believes the greater our informational accuracy, the greater benefit we provide to both dealers and consumers.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
Available Topic Expert(s): For information on the listed expert(s), click appropriate link.
Jesse Toprak
https://profnet.prnewswire.com/Subscriber/ExpertProfile.aspx?ei=94534
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SOURCE TrueCar.com
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