The Midterm Forecast: Clear Sailing for the GOP and Stormy Weather for the Democrats

Political Scientists Predict the 2014 Midterm Elections

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American Political Science Association

Sep 29, 2014, 04:39 ET

WASHINGTON, Sept. 29, 2014 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Ten seasoned election scholars offer predictions for the 2014 US midterm elections in PS: Political Science and Politics, published by Cambridge University Press for the American Political Science Association.

James Campbell, professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, SUNY, and guest editor of the forecasting series, notes that "it is likely to be a good year for Republicans and a rough one for Democrats."

The five forecasts for the House range from a 4- to 16-seat gain for the Republicans, with a median forecast of a 14-seat GOP gain. Campbell remarks, "This would be the largest Republican House majority in more than 80 years (248 Republicans to 187 Democrats)."

The Senate forecasts range from Republicans adding another 5 or 6 seats to a gain of 8 seats. With Republicans needing a 6-seat gain to control the Senate, the forecasts rate the odds of a Republican Senate takeover "between a toss-up and somewhat more likely than not," explains Campbell.

This research is published in the October 2014 issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, scheduled for release in early October. Articles will be complimentary online for a limited time. We invite you to request embargoed proofs by emailing [email protected].

The forecasting scholars include Alan Abramowitz (Emory University); Joseph Bafumi (Dartmouth College); James Campbell (University at Buffalo, SUNY); Robert Erikson (Columbia University); Benjamin Highton (University of California, Davis); Michael Lewis-Beck (University of Iowa); Eric McGhee (Public Policy Institute of California); John Sides (George Washington University); Charles Tien (Hunter College, CUNY); and Christopher Wlezien (University of Texas, Austin).

About the American Political Science Association

Founded in 1903, the American Political Science Association is the leading professional organization for the study of political science and serves more than 13,000 members in more than 80 countries. With a range of programs and services for individuals, departments, and institutions, APSA brings together political scientists from all fields of inquiry, regions, and occupational endeavors within and outside academe to expand awareness and understanding of politics.

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SOURCE American Political Science Association