The global market for infectious disease treatments totaled $64.8 billion in 2017

LONDON, March 7, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- The global market for infectious disease treatments totaled $64.8 billion in 2017.
• The market should total $99 billion by 2022, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2017 to 2022.



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• The global market for therapeutics in infectious disease treatments totaled $48.9 billion in 2017.
• The market should total $74.4 billion by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 8.7% from 2017 to 2022.
• The global market for vaccines in infectious disease treatments totaled $8.5 billion in 2017. The market should total $14.4 billion by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 11.2% from 2017 to 2022.

Chapter 1: Introduction
Infectious diseases are caused by micro-organisms, such as bacteria, protozoa, viruses or fungi, which can be transferred from through direct or indirect human contact. Mankind has been plagued by diseases spread through microbes, some of which have caused large-scale mortality. The discovery of antibiotics, along with the concept of vaccination, has revolutionized medicine and provided the right kind of arsenal to deal with microbial threats.

The discovery of penicillin led to management of diseases such as syphilis, gangrene and tuberculosis that previously had led to many fatalities. Use of vaccines has saved billions of children against diseases such as smallpox and polio. However, developing resistance to antimicrobial medicines among the target groups of organisms and increased mobility of humans and cargo from disease-endemic regions to other parts of the world are major threats in managing conditions such as hepatitis and HIV/AIDS.

Yellow fever outbreaks were reported in several areas in China, Africa, Suriname and Brazil, in the last few years. Recent Ebola and Zika outbreaks have highlighted the gap in our understanding of the spread of viruses and the medical infrastructure required to manage the morbidity.

Diseases such as Ebola, Influenza, Zika and MERS-CoV can spread in pandemic proportions. Rotavirus, in 2013, accounted for approximately 3.4% of all child deaths globally, while RSV, based on 2015 estimates, account for more than 3.4 million hospitalizations in children globally. Malaria and tuberculosis are large threats now due to the emergence of resistant forms of the parasite. Climate change and associated change in vector distribution are some of the factors responsible to make dengue a global problem.

Certain factors such as globalization and associated travel and migration, increasing population and suburban crowded dwellings, climate change, lab accidents, poor public health infrastructure and misuse of antibiotics are responsible for the increase in severity of infectious disease.

This report on infectious diseases provides global market and forecast trends through 2022. The report provides the total addressable market, an indication of the number of people affected, current share of key marketed therapies, approved and used for the treatment of these diseases, along with forecast by region.

The report also provides analysis of the market of diagnostic assays and kits used to detect the everspreading threat of microbial infections, and also looks at innovation in mobile applications and data modelling to predict pandemic spread. These predictive tools have potential to assist authorities prepare and manage global emergencies.

As viruses mutate, newer sub-types have emerged, and bacteria have become resistant to antibiotics; some of the currently marketed "gold-standard treatments" have started to prove ineffective. This report sheds light on some of the newer vaccines and drug candidates with novel mechanism of action. This report includes market intelligence on drug candidates by disease type that are in the clinical and preclinical pipeline.

Efforts by pharmaceutical and biotech companies toward the pipeline on infectious diseases, key patents as well as alliances with other players organizations like WHO, CDC, etc. are also looked at.
Specifically excluded from the scope of research are vector/mosquito control approaches, strategies and products, drugs used for symptomatic treatment and not for the elimination of the virus from host and details on suppliers of generics, and companies manufacturing non-branded generics. Also excluded are markets for hospital-based diagnosis that are not carried out by kits (for example, malaria slide smearbased tests). Also excluded is discussion on the spread of vector-borne infection (such as malaria) via blood-transfusion.

Study Goals and Objectives
This report provides an overview of infectious diseases and explores evolving treatment options and market opportunities. Market share, market deterrents, unmet needs and other factors that drive research are also discussed, while patents that highlight research priorities and predict future trends are analyzed.

Key companies have been profiled.
This report examines regions as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) and details estimated market size as well as forecasts through 2022 by region and disease. It also describes the contributions and portfolio of some of the key players in this domain.

Reasons for Doing This Study
Infectious diseases have a huge burden globally, and with globalization and increased mobility of cargo, humans and animals, diseases that were once restricted to endemic regions are now spreading. There is little understanding and preparedness globally, on how to deal with the situation.

Some of the gold-standard treatments are beginning to prove ineffective in certain cases due to the emergence of parasite resistance, necessitating the need for the discovery of drugs with different mechanisms of action.

This report will enable leaders in the pharmaceuticals, vaccine and diagnostic industry to assess market opportunity, identify white spaces and steer research. This report also includes market intelligence on some of the newer candidates in the drug development pipeline, listed by disease, as well as patents being filed.

Scope of Report
The report focuses on newer drugs and innovations in chemical compounds, vaccines and biologicals and diagnostic kits, recently launched or in development. Specifically excluded from the scope of research are vector or mosquito control approaches, strategies and products; drugs used for symptomatic treatment and not for the elimination of the virus from the host; and details on manufacturers and suppliers of non-branded generics.

BCC Research has categorized the markets based on regions defined by the WHO since it is the primary organization mapping disease prevalence, assisting with access to medicine and enabling partnerships in a large number of infectious diseases. Regions include Africa, Americas, South-East Asia, Europe, Eastern Mediterranean and Western Pacific. These cover all the WHO participating countries, which are described in detail in the subsequent section.

Information Sources
BCC Research conducted a comprehensive literature search that included technical newsletters, published patent applications, company public releases, whitepapers and journals, and several other sources. Data was collected through interviews and correspondence with key opinion leaders in the industry.

Methodology
Both primary and secondary research methodologies were used in preparing this study. Projections were based on discussion with industry leaders, guidance provided in company filings and analysis by organizations such as the WHO.

Geographic Breakdown

In this report, areas considered for market analysis include the six regions defined by the WHO:

Africa
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cabo Verde

Central African Republic
• Chad
• Comoros
• Congo
• Côte d'Ivoire
• Democratic Republic of the Congo
• Equatorial Guinea
• Eritrea
• Ethiopia
• Gabon
• Gambia
• Ghana
• Guinea.
• Guinea-Bissau.
• Kenya.
• Lesotho.
• Liberia.
• Madagascar.
• Malawi.
• Mali.
• Mauritania.
• Mauritius.
• Mozambique.
• Namibia.
• Niger.
• Nigeria.
• Rwanda.
• Sao Tome and Principe.
• Senegal.
• Seychelles.
• Sierra Leone.
• South Africa.
• South Sudan.
• Swaziland.
• Togo.
• Uganda.
• United Republic of Tanzania.
• Zambia.
• Zimbabwe.

Americas
• Antigua and Barbuda.
• Argentina.
• Bahamas.
• Barbados.
• Belize.
• Bolivia.
• Brazil.
• Canada.
• Chile.
• Colombia.
• Costa Rica.
• Cuba.
• Dominica.
• Dominican Republic.
• Ecuador.
• El Salvador.
• Grenada.
• Guatemala.
• Guyana.
• Haiti.
• Honduras.
• Jamaica.
• Mexico.
• Nicaragua.
• Panama.
• Paraguay.
• Peru.
• Saint Kitts and Nevis.
• Saint Lucia.
• Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
• Suriname.
• Trinidad and Tobago.
• The U.S.
• Uruguay.
• Venezuela.

South-East Asia
• Bangladesh.
• Bhutan.
• Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
• India.
• Indonesia.
• Maldives.
• Myanmar.
• Nepal.
• Sri Lanka.
• Thailand.
• Timor-Leste.

Europe
• Albania.
• Andorra.
• Armenia.
• Austria.
• Azerbaijan.
• Belarus.
• Belgium.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina.
• Bulgaria.
• Croatia.
• Cyprus.
• Czech Republic.
• Denmark.
• Estonia.
• Finland.
• France.
• Georgia.
• Germany.
• Greece.
• Hungary.
• Iceland.
• Ireland.
• Israel.
• Italy.
• Kazakhstan.
• Kyrgyzstan.
• Latvia.
• Lithuania.
• Luxembourg.
• Malta.
• Monaco.
• Montenegro.
• Netherlands.
• Norway.
• Poland.
• Portugal.
• Republic of Macedonia.
• Republic of Moldova.
• Romania.
• The Russian Federation.
• San Marino.
• Serbia.
• Slovakia.
• Slovenia.
• Spain.
• Sweden.
• Switzerland.
• Tajikistan.
• Turkey.
• Turkmenistan.
• Ukraine.
• The U.K.
• Uzbekistan.

Eastern Mediterranean
• Afghanistan.
• Bahrain.
• Djibouti.
• Egypt.
• Iraq.
• Islamic Republic of Iran.
• Jordan.
• Kuwait.
• Lebanon.
• Libya.
• Morocco.
• Oman.
• Pakistan.
• Qatar.
• Saudi Arabia.
• Somalia.
• Sudan.
• Syrian Arab Republic.
• Tunisia.
• United Arab Emirates.
• Yemen.

Western Pacific
• Australia.
• Brunei Darussalam.
• Cambodia.
• China.
• Cook Islands.
• Fiji.
• Japan.
• Kiribati.
• Lao People's Democratic Republic.
• Malaysia.
• Marshall Islands.
• Federated States of Micronesia.
• Mongolia.
• Nauru.
• New Zealand.
• Niue.
• Palau.
• Papua New Guinea.
• Philippines.
• Republic of Korea.
• Samoa.
• Singapore.
• Solomon Islands.
• Tonga.
• Tuvalu.
• Vanuatu.
• Vietnam.

Global Market for Infectious Diseases, by Disease Type

Bacterial
- Tuberculosis

Protozoal
- Malaria

Viral
Hepatitis B & C
Herpes Simplex
HIV/AIDS
Influenza
Rotavirus
RSV
MERS-CoV
Hemorrhagic Fevers

Global Markets for Infectious Diseases, by Region
Africa
America
Europe
Eastern Mediterranean
South-East Asia
Western Pacific

Global Markets for Infectious Diseases, by Technology Type
Treatment/ Therapeutics
Vaccines
Diagnostic Kits
- Immunochromatography based assays
- Molecular Methods

Chapter 2: Summary and Highlights
The global market for Infectious Diseases (treatment, vaccines and diagnostics), in 2016, was valued at $59.7 billion, expected to grow to about $99 billion by 2022, at a CAGR of 8.9%.

Key growth markets include the Western Pacific and South-East Asia regions, though all regions have a high single digit growth when look at the overall infectious diseases landscape. America is the biggest market, followed by Europe, throughout the forecast period. Higher cost of treatment accounts for the larger market values in these two markets, even though the number of cases might be lower than other parts of the world.

Therapeutics for hepatitis C and HIV/AIDS are high-value markets, with hepatitis C markets growing at a CAGR of 13% and HIV/AIDS at a CAGR of 5.1%. Malaria, primarily in the African markets, and tuberculosis in South-East Asian countries, are other diseases with high growth poised for the next few years. Rise of resistant forms of the disease, drive towards drugs with newer mechanism of action (MoA) to combat resistance, and initiatives to increase diagnostic and treatment access by WHO and national authorities will drive the market.

In 2016, the global market for HIV therapeutics was valued at $21.9 billion, set to increase to nearly $29.5 billion by 2022, at a CAGR of 5.1%. America was the largest market (more than 88% market share) primarily due to high prices of first-line treatment options and high coverage of treatment.

Based on prevalence, Africa houses about 70% of the individuals living with HIV globally, but only comprises about 7% of the total global market share. This is driven by interventions to reduce prices and WHO measures to ensure increase treatment coverage.

Among vaccines, influenza vaccines have the highest market value market with growth in the next couple of years being driven by conversion to quadrivalent vaccines and immunization of the elderly population. In terms of growth, vaccines for Zika and Dengue have high growth potential. Markets for vaccines for conditions such as viral hemorrhagic fevers depend on the severity and occurrence of the next outbreak and the decision of health authorities to incorporate immunization against the disease in its national programs.

From the perspective of demand, the market for dengue vaccines was $63.8 million in 2016, expected to grow to $930 million at a CAGR of 32%, from 2017 to 2022. Industry experts expect the supply and time to approvals and incorporation in national regulatory programs to slow down market growth. The Central and South America, South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions will be the growth drivers for this market.

For diagnostics, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria are some of the high-value markets, due to high disease burden as well as the need of clinically confirmed diagnosis. Detection kits for RSV, herpes and influenza are under-utilized in developing economies as the clinician can diagnose these, based on clinical findings to a certain accuracy.

Thus, unless the cost of diagnostic kits is lowered, diagnosis of disease will be a combination of a clinician's observation of the symptoms and recommendation of a diagnostic test. Resistance to current standard of therapy is a major issue and newer detection kits also feature assays to identify that.

Better access to treatment and diagnosis, research towards drugs with novel mechanism of action, launch of vaccines, adoption of self-testing and collaboration are expected to drive the overall market for infectious diseases. Approval of generics, blockbuster drugs going off-patent, price control of marketed drugs, and regulatory delays or setbacks in immunization will pose as market deterrents for the next five years.

A point to note is that market projections for the infectious disease market are lower than a few years back.

Some of the reasons include:
• The outlook for markets that were once sensationalized due to Ebola and Zika outbreaks has now been normalized. This has brought in uncertainty in funding.
Recent (September 2017) withdrawing of Sanofi from its Zika vaccine program, due to uncertainty in funding, is one consequence. Diagnostic kit manufacturers are also uncertain of the forecast for kits for these diseases.
• In January 2016, the U.S. FDA approved Merck's Zepatier (elbasvir/grazoprevir) with or without ribavirin for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus genotypes 1 and 4 infections in adult patients. This drug is priced much lower than the standard therapies available ($54,000 for a 12week course while Gilead's Harvoni is priced at $94,000 for a 12-week course) and this will play a role in reducing the overall treatment cost to some extent and hence market value.
• Viread (TDF), the gold-standard treatment for hepatitis B, is near patent expiry and the first generic was introduced in December 2017 (by Teva Pharmaceuticals).
• The dengue vaccine by Sanofi, Dengvaxia, did not perform per analyst expectations, reducing the market size for Dengue in 2016 and the overall forecast outlook.
• Experts interviewed in the course of the market research expect drug and vaccine price control in the U.S. and other markets in the next couple of years.

Research will also be directed toward special patient subgroups – children, patients with co-infection (HIV/hepatitis or HIV/TB) and patients with infection of drug-resistant forms of the disease. Pandemic preparedness is another factor that will have to be stepped up in the near future. Recent pandemics (Ebola, Zika, and Influenza) have highlighted the fact that not a single disease can be assumed to not have a global implication.

A recent Ebola outbreak, reported in May 2017, affected the Democratic Republic of Congo, and as of June 12, 2017, there were a total of nine confirmed cases and four deaths due to EVD.
Tools used in infectious disease epidemiology can predict the next disease outbreak using a number of determinants such as weather, people movement patterns, interaction with animals, etc. This report also highlights some of the tools developed and used to predict infectious disease outbreaks.

Key players working in the domain of infectious diseases include Gilead Sciences, Sanofi Pasteur, GlaxoSmithKline, ViiV Healthcare (joint venture between GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer and Shionogi), Seqirus, a CSL Company, Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV), Merck, Novartis and Janssen Pharmaceuticals (a Johnson & Johnson Company). Key players in diagnostics space include Diasorin SpA, Roche Diagnostics, Siemens Healthineers, Alere (now Abbott) and OraSure Technologies.

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