The Conference Board/FGV Leading Economic Index for Brazil Launched Today

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Jul 17, 2013, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, July 17, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board and The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasileiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) are launching today a new indicator designed to anticipate the ebb and flow of the business cycle in the Brazilian economy: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI). It will be produced monthly and released jointly by both organizations: FGV Brazilian Institute of Economics IBRE - a leading center for social science teaching, research and analysis in Brazil, and The Conference Board - a global independent business membership and research organization.

"Brazil's economy is one of the ten largest economies in the world, and the largest in Latin America," said Bart van Ark, Executive Vice President and Chief Economist, The Conference Board. "Each year, Brazilian influence—in culture as well as commerce, geopolitics and economics—further extends its global reach. Naturally, the range and quality of public data on Brazil must grow as well. With our experience adapting the leading indicator approach to diverse and dynamic emerging markets, The Conference Board is uniquely qualified to respond to this challenge. By joining FGV, we combine our expertise with that of an organization that is synonymous with quality data in Brazil for over 50 years."

"There is no doubt that The Conference Board is the global leader in developing business cycle indicators. Combining The Conference Board's expertise with FGV's knowledge about the Brazilian economy and its data, allowed us to engineer a robust Coincident Economic Index and Leading Economic Index for Brazil," said Luiz Schymura, Director of FGV. "FGV strongly believes that these new and timely statistics will provide the market with useful information about the Brazilian business cycle."

The TCB/FGV Brazil LEI is a unique and powerful metric designed to project the short-term direction of the Brazilian economy, and signal the approach of shifts and turning points. Plotted back to 1996, the index would have reliably anticipated all four recessions identified by the Brazilian Economic Cycle Dating Committee (CODACE) during this period. The new metric is a composite index of eight component indicators, each with a proven track record as a leading indicator. A corresponding index, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), will be released with the TCB/FGV Brazil LEI each month. The TCB/FGV Brazil CEI measures current economic conditions on a monthly basis, helping to pinpoint cycles' beginnings and ends and illustrating current growth and the intensity of economic activity.

The Conference Board has produced LEIs since 1996, when it was selected by the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis to assume responsibility for the leading, coincident, and lagging indicators for the United States. The Conference Board expanded the program globally since the mid-1990s and, in addition to Brazil, now produces LEIs for the United States, the Euro Area, China, Germany, France, Spain, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, Korea, and Mexico. Selection of the component indicators—unique to each economy—follows an approach developed at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) based on economic relevance, cyclical timing, conformity, consistency, smoothness, timeliness, and statistical adequacy.

The components of the TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include: Expectations Indexes from IBRE's Manufacturing Survey, Services Sector Survey and Consumer Expectations Survey; Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods – Index; Exports - Quantum – Index; Terms of Trade – Index; Ibovespa – Bovespa Index; Swap DI pre-fixed - 360 days. The components of the TCB/FGV Brazil CEI include: Industrial production index; Electricity consumption in industry; Volume of sales in the retail market; Number of employees; Real income.

The TCB/FGV Brazil LEI will be released monthly at 11 a.m. Rio de Janeiro time (10 a.m. EDT in July). Releases are posted and archived, with a calendar, at www.conference-board.org/economics/indicators.cfm and www.fgv.br/ibre.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America. www.conferenceboard.org

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ABOUT FGV/IBRE
The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts. www.fgv.br/ibre

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SOURCE The Conference Board