The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for Spain and Related Composite Indexes for January 2010

The Conference Board(R) Spain Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

News provided by

Mar 17, 2010, 05:00 ET

BRUSSELS, March 17/PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain declined 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in January.

The Conference Board LEI for Spain decreased in January for the third time in the last four months, as negative contributions from the Spanish equity price index and job placings more than offset a positive contribution from the Spanish contribution to Euro M2. The six-month growth rate in the leading economic index has continued to slow -- to 1.3 percent (about a 2.6 percent annual rate) in the period through January 2010, but it remains slightly faster than the 0.9 percent increase (about a 1.9 percent annual rate) between January and July 2009. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.

The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined in January for the second time in the last three months. However, the index was revised slightly upwards between August and December 2009 as new data for final household consumption and employment became available. Between July 2009 and January 2010, the coincident economic index decreased by 0.1 percent (about a -0.2 percent annual rate), slower than the 3.3 percent decline (about a -6.5 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been slightly more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months. At the same time, real GDP contracted at a 0.6 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2009, following a decline of 1.1 percent annual rate during the third quarter.

The Conference Board LEI for Spain has fallen slightly in recent months, after rising from April to September of last year. In addition, its six-month growth rate has continued to slow, while the strengths among its components have become less widespread. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has been largely flat during the last six months after falling for more than a year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy is likely to remain weak in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Spain increased in January. The positive contributors -- in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are the Spanish contribution to Euro M2 and order books survey. The negative contributors -- in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest -- are the Spanish equity price index, job placings, the inverted long-term government bond yield and the capital equipment component of industrial production.

With the decrease of 0.2 percent in January, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now stands at 109.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in December and declined 0.5 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index increased 1.3 percent, and three of the six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 58.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the five components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Spain increased in January. Final household consumption* was the only positive contributor in January. Employment*, retail sales survey and industrial production excluding construction declined in January, while real imports* remained unchanged.

With the decrease of 0.2 percent in January, The Conference Board CEI for Spain now stands at 99.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in December and decreased 0.1 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index decreased 0.1 percent, and three of the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 60.0 percent).

    
    
                           Summary Table of Composite Indexes
    
                                               2009     2010       6-month
                                      Nov       Dec      Jan      Jul to Jan
    
    Leading Economic Index (LEI)     109.3    109.6     109.4 p
     Percent Change                   -0.5      0.3      -0.2 p      1.3 p
     Diffusion                        41.7     75.0      33.3       58.3
    
    Coincident Economic Index (CEI)  100.0 r  100.1 p    99.9 p
     Percent Change                   -0.1 r    0.1 p    -0.2 p     -0.1 p
     Diffusion                        50.0     50.0      40.0       60.0
    
    
    n.a.  Not available       p Preliminary        r Revised
    Indexes equal 100 in 2004
    Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, April 14, 2010 at 10:00 A.M. (Madrid Time)

In the U.S. – Wednesday, April 14, 2010 at 4:00 A.M. (ET)

SOURCE The Conference Board