The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Plummets in March

Largest Decline in Index's 60-Year History

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Apr 17, 2020, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, April 17, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 6.7 percent in March to 104.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decrease in February, and a 0.4 percent increase in January.

"In March, the US LEI registered the largest decline in its 60-year history," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. "The unprecedented and sudden deterioration was broad based, with the largest negative contributions coming from initial claims for unemployment insurance and stock prices. The sharp drop in the LEI reflects the sudden halting in business activity as a result of the global pandemic and suggests the US economy will be facing a very deep contraction."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. decreased 0.9 percent in March to 106.6 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in February, and a 0.1 percent increase in January.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 1.2 percent in March to 110.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in February, and a 0.1 percent decline in January.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2020						6-month
	Jan		Feb		Mar		Sep to Mar


Leading Index	111.9	r	111.7	r	104.2	p
Percent Change	0.4	r	-0.2	r	-6.7	p	-6.6
Diffusion	70.0		35.0		35.0		40.0

Coincident Index	107.3		107.6		106.6	p
Percent Change	0.1		0.3		-0.9	p	-0.3
Diffusion	75.0		100.0		50.0		75.0

Lagging Index	108.6	r	108.9	r	110.2	p
Percent Change	-0.1	r	0.3	r	1.2	p	1.8
Diffusion	50.0		64.3		50.0		42.9

p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2016
Source: The Conference Board