The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increases

Indicators Point to Continued Weak Growth Through Fall and Winter

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Sep 22, 2011, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Sept. 22, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in August to 116.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in July and a 0.3 percent increase in June.

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: "The August increase in the U.S. LEI was driven by components measuring financial and monetary conditions which offset substantially weaker components measuring expectations. The growth trend in the LEI has moderated and positive and negative contributors to the index have been roughly balanced. The leading indicators point to rising risks and volatility, and increasing concerns about the health of the expansion."

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: "There is growing risk that sustained weak confidence could put downward pressure on demand and business activity, causing the economy to potentially dip into recession. While the chance of that happening remains below 50-50, the odds have certainly increased in recent months."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in August to 103.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in July, and a 0.2 percent increase in June.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.3 percent in August to 110.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in July, and a 0.3 percent increase in June.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	2011			6-month
	Jun	Jul	Aug	Feb to Aug

Leading index	115.2	115.9 r	116.2 p
Percent Change	.3	.6 r	.3 p	2.4
Diffusion	45.0	65.0	40.0	55.0

Coincident Index	103.1 r	103.2 p	103.3 p
Percent Change	.2 r	.1 p	.1 p	0.8
Diffusion	87.5	75.0	87.5	100.0

Lagging Index	109.7 r	110.0 p	110.3 p
Percent Change	.3 r	.3 p	.3 p	2.0
Diffusion	50.0	64.3	57.1	64.3

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
Index of supplier deliveries – vendor performance
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Money supply, M2
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Index of consumer expectations

For full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

SOURCE The Conference Board