The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increases

Index Points to Slow Growth Through Early 2011

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Oct 21, 2010, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Oct. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in September to 110.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.2 percent increase in July.

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: "The LEI remains on a general upward trend, but it is growing at its slowest pace since the middle of 2009. There isn't any indication of a relapse into another downturn through the end of the year."

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: "More than a year after the recession officially ended, the economy is slow and has no forward momentum. The LEI suggests little change in economic conditions through the holidays or the early months of 2011."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in September, remaining at 101.4 (2004 = 100), following no change in August and a 0.1 percent increase in July. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.4 percent in September to 108.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.4 percent increase in July.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.


The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
Index of supplier deliveries – vendor performance
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Money supply, M2
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Index of consumer expectations

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm


Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	2010			6 month
	Jul	Aug	Sep	Mar to Sep

Leading index	110.0 r	110.1 r	110.4 p
Percent Change	.2 r	.1 r	.3 p	0.8
Diffusion	50.0	65.0	55.0	40.0

Coincident Index	101.4 r	101.4 p	101.4 p
Percent Change	.1	.0 p	.0 p	0.9
Diffusion	62.5	75.0	50.0	100.0

Lagging Index	107.9 p	108.0 p	108.4 p
Percent Change	.4 p	.1 p	.4 p	0.6
Diffusion	64.3	42.9	57.1	64.3

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

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