The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increases

Indicators Point to Slow Expansion Through 2010

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Aug 19, 2010, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Aug. 19 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in July to 109.8, following a 0.3 percent decline in June, and a 0.5 percent increase in May.

"The indicators point to a slow expansion through the end of the year," says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. "With inventory rebuilding moderating, the industrial core of the economy has moved to a slower pace. There appears to be no change in the pace of the service sector. Combined, the result is a weak economy with little forward momentum. However, the good news is that the data do not point to a recession."

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: "The economy should continue expanding, albeit slowly. The LEI is growing at its slowest pace since mid-2009 and it has been essentially flat since March. However, the index is still well above pre-recession levels and the CEI remains on a rising trend that began in late 2009. All four coincident indicators have risen over the last six months, with July's gain in industrial production offsetting the recent weakness in employment."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in July to 101.4, following a 0.1 percent decline in June, and a 0.4 percent increase in May. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.4 percent in July to 107.9, following a 0.1 percent increase in June, and a 0.1 percent decline in May.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	2010			6-month
	May	Jun	Jul	Jan to Jul

Leading index	110.0	109.7 r	109.8 p
Percent Change	.5	-.3 r	.1 p	2.0
Diffusion	40.0	50.0	55.0	50.0

Coincident Index	101.3 r	101.2 p	101.4 p
Percent Change	.4 r	-.1 p	.2 p	1.3
Diffusion	75.0	50.0	75.0	100.0

Lagging Index	107.4 r	107.5 p	107.9 p
Percent Change	-.1	.1 p	.4 p	0.1
Diffusion	35.7	42.9	64.3	50.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance

Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials

Index of supplier deliveries – vendor performance

Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods

Building permits, new private housing units

Stock prices, 500 common stocks

Money supply, M2

Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds

Index of consumer expectations

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

SOURCE The Conference Board