The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Slightly

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Sep 18, 2015, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Sept. 18, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in August to 123.7 (2010 = 100), following no change in July, and a 0.6 percent increase in June.

"The U.S. LEI suggests economic growth will remain moderate into the New Year, with little reason to expect growth to pick up substantially," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "Average working hours and new orders in manufacturing have been weak, pointing to more slow growth in the industrial sector. However, employment, personal income and manufacturing and trade sales have all been rising, helping to offset the weakness in industrial production in recent months."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in August to 112.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in July, and a 0.1 percent increase in June.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in August to 118.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in July, and a 0.9 percent increase in June.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2015						6-month
	Jun		Jul		Aug		Feb to Aug


Leading Index	123.6		123.6	r	123.7	p
Percent Change	0.6		0.0	r	0.1		2.3
Diffusion	80.0		75.0		55.0		70.0

Coincident Index	112.1	r	112.5		112.6	p
Percent Change	0.1	r	0.4	r	0.1		0.7
Diffusion	62.5		100.0		75.0		75.0

Lagging Index	117.9	r	118.3	r	118.5	p
Percent Change	0.9	r	0.3		0.2		2.2
Diffusion	92.9		64.3		64.3		78.6

p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Source: The Conference Board