The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in January

Short-Term Outlook Looks Positive, but Downside Risks Exist

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Feb 19, 2015, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Feb. 19, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in January to 121.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December, and a 0.3 percent increase in November.

"The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased again in January, but its pace of growth has moderated in recent months," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "While the LEI suggests a positive short-term outlook in 2015, the lack of strong momentum in residential construction, along with a weak outlook for new orders in manufacturing, poses a downside risk for the U.S. economy."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in January to 111.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in December, and a 0.5 percent increase in November.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in January to 115.3 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in December, and a 0.3 percent increase in November.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2014				2015		6-month
	Nov		Dec		Jan		Jul to Jan


Leading Index	120.3	r	120.8	r	121.1	p
Percent Change	0.3	r	0.4	r	0.2	p	2.3
Diffusion	60.0		75.0		55.0		80.0

Coincident Index	111.2		111.4		111.6	p
Percent Change	0.5		0.2		0.2	p	1.5
Diffusion	100.0		75.0		100.0		100.0

Lagging Index	114.7		115.0		115.3	p
Percent Change	0.3		0.3		0.3	p	1.4
Diffusion	35.7		78.6		71.4		78.6

p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Source: The Conference Board