The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in December

Economic Growth to Continue Through First Half of 2018

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Jan 25, 2018, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Jan. 25, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in December to 107.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in November, and a 1.3 percent increase in October.

"The U.S. LEI continued rising rapidly in December, pointing to a continuation of strong economic growth in the first half of 2018. The passing of the tax plan is likely to provide even more tailwind to the current expansion," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "The gains among the leading indicators have been widespread, with most of the strength concentrated in new orders in manufacturing, consumers' outlook on the economy, improving stock markets and financial conditions."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in December to 102.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in November, and a 0.4 percent increase in October.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.7 percent in December to 104.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in November and a 0.3 percent increase in October.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. Winner of the Consensus Economics 2016 Forecast Accuracy Award (U.S.), The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2017						6-month
	Oct		Nov		Dec		Jun to Dec


Leading Index	105.9	r	106.4	r	107.0	p
Percent Change	1.3	r	0.5	r	0.6	p	3.1
Diffusion	100.0		65.0		75.0		90.0

Coincident Index	102.4	r	102.5	r	102.8	p
Percent Change	0.4	r	0.1	r	0.3	p	1.2
Diffusion	100.0		75.0		100.0		100.0

Lagging Index	103.2	r	103.3	r	104.0	p
Percent Change	0.3		0.1		0.7	p	1.4
Diffusion	57.1		57.1		78.6		71.4

p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2016
Source: The Conference Board

NOTE: This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes was changed to 2016 = 100 from 2010 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at [email protected].

SOURCE The Conference Board