The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Again

But Weaker Growth May be Ahead

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Apr 17, 2015, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, April 17, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in March to 121.4 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in February, and a 0.2 percent increase in January.

"Although the leading economic index still points to a moderate expansion in economic activity, its slowing growth rate over recent months suggests weaker growth may be ahead," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "Building permits was the weakest component this month, but average working hours and manufacturing new orders have also slowed the LEI's growth over the last six months."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in March to 112.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in February, and a 0.2 percent increase in January.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in March to 116.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in February, and a 0.3 percent increase in January.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org


Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2014			2015		6-month
	Jan	Feb		Mar		Sep to Mar


Leading Index	121.1	121.2	r	121.4	p
Percent Change	0.2	0.1	r	0.2		1.8
Diffusion	40.0	50.0		60.0		65.0

Coincident Index	111.7	111.9		112.0	p
Percent Change	0.2	0.2		0.1		1.4
Diffusion	75.0	100.0		75.0		87.5

Lagging Index	115.4	115.7	r	116.2	p
Percent Change	0.3	0.3		0.4		1.6
Diffusion	64.3	92.9		71.4		78.6

p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Source: The Conference Board