The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Again

Moderate Growth to Continue Through Winter

News provided by

Dec 18, 2014, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Dec. 18, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in November to 105.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in October, and a 0.8 percent increase in September.

"The increase in the LEI signals continued moderate growth through the winter season," said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board. "The biggest challenge has been, and remains, more income growth. However, with labor market conditions tightening, we are seeing the first signs of wage growth starting to pick up."

"Widespread and persistent gains in the LEI point to strong underlying conditions in the U.S. economic expansion," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "The current situation, measured by the coincident economic index, has been improving steadily, with employment and industrial production making the largest contributions in November."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in November to 110.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in October, and a 0.3 percent increase in September.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in November to 125.4 (2004 = 100), following no change in October, and a 0.1 percent increase in September.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

NOTE:
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes will be changed to 2010 = 100 from 2004 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at [email protected].

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
		2014			6-month
		Sep	Oct	Nov	May to Nov

Leading Index		104.3	104.9 r	105.5 p
	Percent Change	0.8 r	0.6 r	0.6 p	3.6
	Diffusion	85.0	70.0	80.0	95.0

Coincident Index		110.1	110.3 r	110.7 p
	Percent Change	0.3	0.2 r	0.4 p	1.5
	Diffusion	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Lagging Index		125.0	125.0 r	125.4 p
	Percent Change	0.1	0.0 r	0.3 p	1.3
	Diffusion	50.0	64.3	57.1	50.0

p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board