The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased

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Aug 18, 2016, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Aug. 18, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in July to 124.3 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in June, and a 0.2 percent decline in May.

"The U.S. LEI picked up again in July, suggesting moderate economic growth should continue through the end of 2016," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "There may even be some moderate upside growth potential if recent improvements in manufacturing and construction are sustained, and average consumer expectations don't deteriorate further."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in July to 113.9 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in June, and a 0.1 percent decline in May.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in July to 121.8 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in June, and a 0.4 percent increase in May.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
			2016				6-month
	May		Jun		Jul		Jan to Jul


Leading Index	123.4	r	123.8	r	124.3	p
Percent Change	-0.2		0.3		0.4	p	1.1
Diffusion	45.0		85.0		80.0		60.0

Coincident Index	113.3	r	113.5	r	113.9	p
Percent Change	-0.1	r	0.2	r	0.4	p	0.7
Diffusion	25.0		100.0		100.0		100.0

Lagging Index	121.8	r	121.7	r	121.8	p
Percent Change	0.4		-0.1		0.1	p	1.5
Diffusion	78.6		42.9		42.9		78.6

p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Source: The Conference Board