The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Slightly

NEW YORK, Oct. 22, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in September to 123.3 (2010 = 100). The Index was unchanged in August and July.  

"Despite September's decline, the U.S. LEI still suggests economic expansion will continue, although at a moderate pace," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "The recent weakness in stock markets, the manufacturing sector and housing permits was offset by gains in financial indicators, and to a lesser extent improvements in consumer expectations and initial claims for unemployment insurance. The U.S. economy is on track for moderate growth of about 2.5 percent in the coming quarters, despite the mixed global economic landscape."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in September to 112.8 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in September to 119.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.4 percent increase in July.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

SOURCE The Conference Board

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