The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Declined in September

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Oct 21, 2024, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Oct. 21, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.5% in September 2024 to 99.7 (2016=100), following a 0.3% decline in August. Over the six-month period between March and September 2024, the LEI fell by 2.6%, more than its 2.2% decline over the previous six-month period (September 2023 to March 2024).

"Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers' outlook for future business conditions was tepid. Gains among other LEI components were not significant enough to offset weakness among the four gauges mentioned above. Overall, the LEI continued to signal uncertainty for economic activity ahead and is consistent with The Conference Board expectation for moderate growth at the close of 2024 and into early 2025."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US inched up by 0.1% in September 2024 to 112.9 (2016=100), after a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in August. The CEI increased by 0.9% in the six-month period ending September 2024, higher than its 0.5% growth rate over the previous six-month period. The CEI's component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales contributed positively to the index in September and slightly more than offset a decline in industrial production.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US declined by 0.3% to 118.9 (2016=100) in September 2024, after no change in August. The LAG's six-month growth rate turned negative, showing a 0.2% contraction over the six-month period ending in September 2024, after a 1.1% increase over the six-month period from March 2023 to September 2024.

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, November 21, 2024, at 10 A.M. ET.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

			2024				6-Month
	July		August		September		Mar to Sep
Leading Index	100.5	r	100.2		99.7	p
Percent Change	-0.5	r	-0.3	r	-0.5		-2.6
Diffusion	30.0		55.0		55.0		35.0
Coincident Index	112.6	r	112.8	r	112.9	p
Percent Change	0.1	r	0.2	r	0.1		0.9
Diffusion	75.0		100.0		75.0		100.0
Lagging Index	119.3	r	119.3	r	118.9	p
Percent Change	-0.2	r	0.0		-0.3		-0.2
Diffusion	35.7		28.6		28.6		0.0
p Preliminary r Revised c Corrected				Source: The Conference Board
Indexes equal 100 in 2016				Source: The Conference Board

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or "leads"—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the US are:

Average weekly hours in manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
ISM^® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits for new private housing units
S&P 500^® Index of Stock Prices
Leading Credit Index^™
Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the US are:

Payroll employment
Personal income less transfer payments
Manufacturing and trade sales
Industrial production

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org

SOURCE The Conference Board