The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Declined

Economic growth may be peaking; economy could decelerate to 2 percent growth by year end

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Jan 24, 2019, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Jan. 24, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in December to 111.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in November, and a 0.3 percent decline in October.

"The U.S. LEI declined slightly in December and the recent moderation in the LEI suggests that the U.S. economic growth rate may slow down this year," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. "While the effects of the government shutdown are not yet reflected here, the LEI suggests that the economy could decelerate towards 2 percent growth by the end of 2019."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in December to 105.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in November, and a 0.2 percent increase in October.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in December to 106.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in November and a 0.6 percent increase in October.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

NOTE: Please note that due to the government shutdown, data for manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials for November and December and building permits were not published for December. The Conference Board has forecasted these series in order to publish a preliminary Leading Economic Index. Data for manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft for November are from the advance report for Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders. In addition, The Conference Board is postponing the regularly scheduled annual benchmark revision of the composite indicators until all underlying data are available.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2018						6-month
	Oct		Nov		Dec		Jun to Dec


Leading Index	111.6		111.8	p	111.7	p
Percent Change	-0.3		0.2	p	-0.1	p	1.5
Diffusion	50.0		65.0		65.0		80.0

Coincident Index	104.7		104.9		105.1	p
Percent Change	0.2	r	0.2		0.2	p	1.2
Diffusion	75.0		100.0		100.0		100.0

Lagging Index	105.7	r	106.2	r	106.7	p
Percent Change	0.6	r	0.5	r	0.5	p	1.3
Diffusion	85.7		64.3		85.7		71.4

p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2016
Source: The Conference Board