The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. Increases

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Feb 13, 2015, 09:30 ET

NEW YORK, Feb. 13, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --

Due to a technical error in January, the published data for The Conference Board Leading Index for the U.K and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index for the U.K were incorrect for May–November 2014. The corrections affect the originally reported levels of the leading and coincident economic indexes in the past seven months, as well as some of the monthly and six-month growth rates. They do not affect the conclusions reported in the January 2015 release.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.1 percent in December to 112.1 (2010= 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in November, and a 0.4 percent decline in October.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in December to 104.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in November, and a 0.1 percent increase in October.

The LEI for the U.K. had declined in each of previous three months before December's small increase; as a result, its six-month growth has fallen into negative territory for the first time in more than two years. Meanwhile, the CEI continues to see moderate improvement, but its six-month change has slowed in recent months. Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes suggests that pace of growth may slow further in the months ahead.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the U.K.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume, CBI Monthly Enquiry
Volume of Expected Output, CBI Monthly Enquiry
Consumer Confidence
Stock Prices, FTSE all share price index
Yield Spread, 10 years minus Bank Rate
Productivity, Whole Economy Index
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2014						6-month
	Oct		Nov		Dec		Jun to Dec

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	112.3	p	112.0	p	112.1	p
Percent Change	-0.4	p	-0.3	p	0.1	p	-0.3	p
Diffusion	57.1		57.1		57.1		42.9

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	104.4	p	104.6	p	104.7	p
Percent Change	0.1	p	0.2	p	0.1	p	0.7	p
Diffusion	62.5		75.0		75.0		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved