The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. Decreased Again in September

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Nov 10, 2011, 05:00 ET

BRUSSELS, Nov. 10, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. decreased 0.3 percent in September, after decreasing 0.5 percent in August and increasing 0.3 percent in July. Two of the seven components made positive contributions to the index in September. The index stands at 103.7 (2004=100).

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: "The second consecutive decline of the LEI for the United Kingdom signals a further deterioration of an already weak economic outlook. The stronger than expected output growth registered during the third quarter is unlikely to be repeated in the short term. Rising gloom among manufacturers may add to consumers' pessimism and lead to sluggish or even negative growth between the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in September, after decreasing 0.1 percent in both August and July. The index stands at 102.4 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases: http://www.conference-board.org/data/

For more information: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

For full press release: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2011			6-month
	Jul	Aug	Sep	Mar to Sep

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	104.5 p	104.0 p	103.7 p
Percent Change	0.3 p	-0.5 p	-0.3 p	0.5 p
Diffusion	57.1	28.6	14.3	42.9

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	102.4 p	102.3 p	102.4 p
Percent Change	-0.1 p	-0.1 p	0.1 p	-0.1 p
Diffusion	25.0	50.0	75.0	50.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved