The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area Declined Again in June

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Jul 27, 2011, 04:00 ET

BRUSSELS, July 27, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area decreased 0.3 percent in June to 108.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in May and a 0.2 percent increase in April.

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: "The LEI for the Euro Area declined again in June, its third decline in the past four months. The slowdown in the global manufacturing cycle, combined with sluggish domestic demand, continue to weigh on economic activity in the Euro Area. But economic activity should continue to slowly expand through the end of the year. The sovereign debt crisis creates another potential headwind for the Euro Area economy, which could increase volatility in growth performance if not resolved in the near term."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, remained unchanged in June. The index stands at 103.1 (2004 = 100) according to preliminary estimates*. The CEI increased 0.1 percent in May, following an increase of 0.2 percent in April.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.

The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for ten other individual countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:

Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
Index of Capital Goods New Orders (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
Interest Rate Spread (source: ECB)
Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (source: Markit Economics)
Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics)

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases: http://www.conference-board.org/data/

* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply, residential building permits, and new orders of capital goods. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes

	2011			6-month
	Apr	May	Jun	Dec to Jun

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	108.9 p	108.8 p	108.5 p
Percent Change	0.2 p	-0.1 p	-0.3 p	1.1 p
Diffusion	56.3	37.5	31.3	31.3

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	103.0 p	103.1 p	103.1 p
Percent Change	0.2 p	0.1 p	0.0 p	0.3 p
Diffusion	87.5	62.5	50.0	75.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved