The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain Declines

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Dec 14, 2011, 04:00 ET

BRUSSELS, Dec. 14, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Spain declined 0.2 percent in October to 105.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in September, and a 0.2 percent decline in August.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Spain, a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.1 percent in October to 101.1 (2004 = 100), following no change in September, and a 0.1 percent increase in August.

The Conference Board LEI for Spain continued to decline this month, its seventh decline in the past eight months amid widespread weaknesses among its components. As a result, its six-month growth rate is now near its lowest level since 2009. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has fallen four times in the past six months, and its six-month growth rate has been negative for the past two months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that there is substantial risk of an economic contraction in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Spain

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Spain include:

Capital Equipment Component of Industrial Production
Contribution to Euro M2
Stock Price Index
Long term Government Bond Yield
Order Books Survey
Job Placings

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=9

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2011						6-month
	Aug		Sep		Oct		Apr to Oct
Leading Economic Index (LEI)	105.8		105.4	r	105.2
Percent Change	-0.2		-0.4	r	-0.2		-1.8
Diffusion	16.7		25.0		33.3		33.3

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	101.2	p	101.2	p	101.1	p
Percent Change	0.1	p	0.0	p	-0.1	p	-0.3	p
Diffusion	60.0		50.0		50.0		20.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved