The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Increases

News provided by

Jan 25, 2012, 11:06 ET

NEW YORK, Jan. 25, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 1.3 in November to 120.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in October, and a 0.7 percent decline in September.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in November to 117.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in October, and a 0.5 percent increase in September.

The large gain of The Conference Board LEI for Mexico in November following three monthly decreases was not sufficient to lift the index above its level six months ago, though the pace of contraction slowed substantially in November compared to the previous two months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico continued on the upward trend that started in mid-2009, with widespread strengths among its components during the past six months. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will continue to expand, but near -term risks of slower growth remain.

This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact [email protected].

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include:

Industrial Production, Construction Component
Stock Prices
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil
Net Insufficient Inventories
Federal Funds Rate
Real Exchange Rate

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=8

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes
2011
				6-month
	Sep	Oct	Nov	May to Nov
Leading Index	119.0	118.7	120.3
Percent Change	-0.7	-0.3	1.3	-0.2
Diffusion	50.0	58.3	75.0	75.0

Coincident Index	116.8	117.3	117.8 p
Percent Change	0.5	0.4	0.4 p	2.3 p
Diffusion	100.0	83.3	100.0	100.0

n.a. Not Available	p Preliminary		r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board			All Rights Reserved