The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Increases

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Jan 28, 2011, 11:00 ET

NEW YORK, Jan. 28, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 1.7 percent in November to 118.8 (2004 = 100), following a 1.0 percent increase in October, and a 0.4 percent increase in September.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in November to 113.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in October, and a 0.5 percent increase in September.

The Conference Board LEI for Mexico has rebounded in the past several months after declining modestly in the middle of 2010, and its six-month growth rate has picked up lately. With this gain, the leading economic index is just 2.7 percent below its previous peak in April 2008. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, has been on an upward trend since the middle of 2009. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that despite recent volatility, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace, and could even pick up somewhat in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include:

Industrial Production, Construction Component
Stock Prices
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil
Net Insufficient Inventories
Federal Funds Rate
Real Exchange Rate

For more information including full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=8

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

NOTE:

This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at [email protected].

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

    
    
                 Summary Table of Composite Indexes
    
                                     2010             6-month
                            Sep    Oct      Nov     May. To Nov
                           -----  -----  ---------  -----------
    
    Leading index          115.7  116.8    118.8
      Percent Change         0.4    1.0      1.7         3.4
      Diffusion             41.7   58.3     91.7        83.3
    
    Coincident Index       112.6  113.1    113.6 p
      Percent Change         0.5    0.4      0.4 p       2.2
      Diffusion            100.0   66.7    100.0       100.0
    
    n.a. Not available     p Preliminary     r Revised
    Indexes equal 100 in 2004
    Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

SOURCE The Conference Board