The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Declines

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Mar 13, 2015, 12:00 ET

NEW YORK, March 13, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 2.0 percent in January to 100.6 (2010 = 100), following a 3.5 percent decrease in December, and a 1.0 percent increase in November.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in January to 114.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in December, and a 0.3 percent increase in November.

The LEI for Mexico fell again in January and has declined in five of the last six months. As a result, its six-month growth rate has moved deeper into negative territory. While much of the decline in the LEI has been driven by falling oil prices, the financial sector has begun showing signs of weakness in the past two months. Meanwhile, the moderate upward trend in the CEI for Mexico continued through January. Despite the steady improvement in the CEI, the deceleration in the LEI's growth in recent months points to increasing downside pressure on Mexico's economy in the coming months.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include:

Industrial Production, Construction Component
Stock Prices
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil
Net Insufficient Inventories
Federal Funds Rate
Real Exchange Rate

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=8

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2014				2015		6-month
	Nov		Dec		Jan		Jul to Jan

Leading index	106.4		102.7	r	100.6	p
Percent Change	1.0		-3.5	r	-2.0	p	-6.2	p
Diffusion	58.3		25.0		33.3		41.7

Coincident Index	114.1		114.3	r	114.6	p
Percent Change	0.3	r	0.2	r	0.3	p	1.6	p
Diffusion	66.7		66.7		100.0		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved