The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Declines

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Dec 16, 2014, 11:00 ET

NEW YORK, Dec. 16, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 1.3 percent in October to 122.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decline in September, and a 0.5 percent decline in August.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in October to 125.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in September, and a 0.3 percent increase in August.

The LEI for Mexico has declined in the past three consecutive months, as falling oil prices, higher levels of inventories, and devaluation of the Mexican peso continue to drag down the index. As a result, the six-month growth rate of the LEI has moderated compared to the first half of the year. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico continues on a slightly upward trend. Despite the steady growth in the CEI, the recent slowing in the rate of growth in the LEI, and persistent weakness in oil prices, suggest that although Mexico's economic expansion should continue into early 2015, the pace of growth is unlikely to accelerate.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include:

Industrial Production, Construction Component
Stock Prices
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil
Net Insufficient Inventories
Federal Funds Rate
Real Exchange Rate

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=8

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Indexes
2014
	Aug	Sep	Oct	6-month Apr to Oct

Leading index	125.1 r	124.5 r	122.9 p
Percent Change	-0.5 r	-0.5 r	-1.3 p	0.5 p
Diffusion	41.7 r	8.3	41.7	66.7

Coincident Index	125.2 r	125.6	125.9 p
Percent Change	0.3 r	0.3 r	0.2 p	1.9 p
Diffusion	100.0	100.0	83.3	100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved