The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Declines

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Nov 14, 2014, 11:00 ET

NEW YORK, Nov. 14, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 1.3 percent in September to 123.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in August, and a 0.1 percent decline in July.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in September to 125.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.

The LEI for Mexico has been falling for three consecutive months through September, mainly driven by weaker oil prices and higher levels of inventories. Its six-month growth rate remains slightly better than in the first half of the year, but the rate of acceleration has moderated during the third quarter. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico continues its upward trend through September, and its six-month growth rate has also picked up. Despite the strength in the CEI, the recent slowing in the rate of growth in the LEI suggests that the economic expansion should continue into early 2015, but an acceleration in the pace of growth is unlikely.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include:

Industrial Production, Construction Component
Stock Prices
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil
Net Insufficient Inventories
Federal Funds Rate
Real Exchange Rate

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=8

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2014						6-month
	Jul		Aug		Sep		Mar to Sep

Leading index	125.6	r	125.4		123.8
Percent Change	-0.1	r	-0.2		-1.3		2.1
Diffusion	66.7	r	41.7		8.3		75.0

Coincident Index	124.8	r	125.1	r	125.6	p
Percent Change	0.3	r	0.2		0.4	p	1.9	p
Diffusion	100.0		83.3		100.0		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved