The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Declines

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Apr 22, 2014, 11:00 ET

NEW YORK, April 22, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.5 percent in February to 121.2 (2004 = 100), following a 1.4 percent decline in January, and a 0.2 percent decline in December.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in February to 123.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in January, and a 0.2 percent increase in December.

The LEI for Mexico has declined in four of the last six months. As a result, the six-month change in the LEI has been negative since the beginning of this year, with widespread weaknesses among its components. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico increased modestly again, and its six-month growth rate has improved compared to the very weak first half of last year. The negative growth and widespread weakness in the LEI over the last six months suggests that the current moderate pace of economic activity is unlikely to pick up in the coming months.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include:

Industrial Production, Construction Component
Stock Prices
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil
Net Insufficient Inventories
Federal Funds Rate
Real Exchange Rate

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=8

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2013		2014				6-month
	Dec		Jan		Feb		Aug to Feb

Leading Index	123.5		121.8	r	121.2
Percent Change	-0.2		-1.4	r	-0.5		-1.9
Diffusion	75.0		8.3		41.7		33.3

Coincident Index	122.7	r	122.9	r	123.0	p
Percent Change	0.2		0.2	r	0.1	p	1.0	p
Diffusion	100.0		100.0		66.7		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved