The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Declines

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Mar 14, 2014, 12:00 ET

NEW YORK, March 14, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.8 percent in January to 122.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in December, and no change in November.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in January to 122.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in December, and a 0.3 percent increase in November.

The LEI for Mexico has been declining for two consecutive months, following no change in October and November. As a result, its six-month growth became slightly negative, although the rate of decline has not been as sharp as last summer. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico increased modestly again in January, and its six-month growth rate has been slightly rising since the first half of last year. Despite the steady but moderate growth in the CEI, the negative growth in the LEI over the last six months points to increasing downside risks to the pace of economic expansion in the first half of 2014.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include:

Industrial Production, Construction Component
Stock Prices
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil
Net Insufficient Inventories
Federal Funds Rate
Real Exchange Rate

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=8

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2013		2014	6-month
	Nov	Dec	Jan	Jul to Jan
Leading index	123.7 r	123.5 r	122.5
Percent Change	0.0	-0.2	-0.8	-0.6
Diffusion	66.7	75.0	16.7	50.0
Coincident Index	122.4 r	122.6 r	122.7 p
Percent Change	0.3	0.2 r	0.1 p	0.9 p
Diffusion	66.7	83.3	83.3	66.7