The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Declines

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Dec 16, 2013, 11:00 ET

NEW YORK, Dec. 16, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.2 percent in October to 124.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in September, and a 0.3 percent increase in August.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in October to 123.5 (2004 = 100), following no change in September, and a 0.2 percent increase in August.

The LEI for Mexico declined in October following three consecutive gains. Its six-month growth rate, although improved slightly from the third quarter, remains in negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico increased modestly in October, and its six-month growth rate was slightly up compared to the first half of this year. Taken together, continued widespread weakness in the LEI in recent months suggests that economic growth is unlikely to pick up through the beginning of 2014.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include:

Industrial Production, Construction Component
Stock Prices
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil
Net Insufficient Inventories
Federal Funds Rate
Real Exchange Rate

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=8

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2013						6-month
	Aug		Sep		Oct		Apr to Oct

Leading Index	124.7	r	124.9	r	124.7
Percent Change	0.3		0.2	r	-0.2		-2.0
Diffusion	25.0		50.0		66.7		33.3

Coincident Index	123.4		123.4		123.5	p
Percent Change	0.2		0.0		0.1	p	0.4	p
Diffusion	66.7		33.3		50.0		50.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved