The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Declines

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Aug 24, 2012, 11:00 ET

NEW YORK, Aug. 24, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 1.0 percent in June to 119.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent decline in May, and a 0.7 percent decline in April.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increase 0.5 percent in June to 120.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in May, and a 0.1 percent decline in April.

The Conference Board LEI for Mexico has been declining for the past three months, and as a result its six-month growth rate has turned negative for the first time since December of last year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in June following two consecutive declines, and its six-month growth rate has picked up moderately from the second half of 2011. Despite the fairly steady growth in the coincident index this year, the recent declines in the leading index and its components suggest that the rate of economic expansion is likely to moderate in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include:

Industrial Production, Construction Component
Stock Prices
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil
Net Insufficient Inventories
Federal Funds Rate
Real Exchange Rate

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=8

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2012			6-month
	Apr	May	Jun	Dec to Jun

Leading index	121.9r	121.1r	119.9
Percent Change	-0.7	-0.7	-1.0	-0.1
Diffusion	25.0	41.7	41.7	58.3

Coincident Index	120.1	119.8r	120.4
Percent Change	-0.1	-0.2r	0.5	2.3
Diffusion	50.0	33.3	100.0	100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved