The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Declines

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Oct 27, 2011, 11:00 ET

NEW YORK, Oct. 27, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 1.2 percent in August to 119.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in July, and a 0.2 percent increase in June.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in August to 116.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in July, and a 0.3 percent increase in June.

The Conference Board LEI for Mexico declined sharply in August, and its upward trend which started in mid-2010 has paused in recent months. Its six-month growth rate has also slowed significantly as a result. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico continued its gradual upward trend that started in mid-2009, and its six-month growth has remained relatively stable this year. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will continue to expand, albeit at a moderate pace in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include:

Industrial Production, Construction Component

Stock Prices

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil

Net Insufficient Inventories

Federal Funds Rate

Real Exchange Rate

For more information including full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=8

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Indexes
		2011	6-month

	Jun	Jul	Aug	Feb to Aug
Leading index	120.9 r	121.0 r	119.5
Percent Change	0.2	0.1 r	-1.2	0.3
Diffusion	58.3	58.3	25.0	41.7

Coincident Index	115.3	115.7	116.0
Percent Change	0.3	0.3	0.3	1.6
Diffusion	100.0	83.3	66.7	100.0
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved