The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Korea Declines

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Jan 12, 2012, 08:00 ET

NEW YORK, Jan. 12, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Korea declined 0.9 percent in November, to 119.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in October, and a 0.7 percent decrease in September.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in November to 115.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 increase in October, and a 0.8 percent decrease in September.

The Conference Board LEI for Korea has been on a downward trend since early 2011, and its six-month growth rate has turned negative since September. Meanwhile, the six month growth rate of The Conference Board CEI for Korea has also moderated since mid-2011. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue growing in the near term, but the risk for slower growth is rising.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Korea
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Korea include:

Stock Prices
Value of Machinery Orders
Letter of Credit Arrivals
Index of Shipments to Inventories
Export FOB
Yield of Government Public Bonds
Private Construction Orders

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=6

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, these regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact [email protected].

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2011						6-month
	Sep		Oct		Nov		May to Nov

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	120.0		120.2		119.1
Percent Change	-0.7		0.2		-0.9		-1.9
Diffusion	28.6		42.9		28.6		28.6

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	114.8	p	115.7	p	115.9	p
Percent Change	-0.8	p	0.8	p	0.2	p	0.9	p
Diffusion	25.0		100.0		87.5		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved