The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Increases

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May 15, 2012, 09:00 ET

NEW YORK, May 15, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan increased 0.9 percent in March to 96.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in February, and a 0.1 percent increase in January.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, decreased in March by 0.1 percent to 98.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in February, and a 0.4 percent increase in January.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan continued to improve through March and has returned to its pre-earthquake level reached in February 2011. The six-month growth of the index has also picked up as a result. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Japan declined slightly after three consecutive gains, and its six-month growth remains slower than the second half of last year. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components continue to suggest that the contraction of real GDP seen at the end of 2011 is likely to be temporary and economic activity is likely to pick up somewhat in the coming months.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
			2012				6-month
	Jan		Feb		Mar		Sep to Mar
Leading Economic index (LEI)	95.2	p	96.0	p	96.9	p
Percent Change	0.1	p	0.8	p	0.9	p	3.3	p
Diffusion	65.0		60.0		75.0		95.0
Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	98.0	p	98.2	p	98.1	p
Percent Change	0.4	p	0.2	p	-0.1	p	0.9	p
Diffusion	100.0		75.0		50.0		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved