The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Increases

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Mar 13, 2012, 09:00 ET

NEW YORK, March 13, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan increased 0.3 percent in January to 95.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in December, and no change in November.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, increased in January by 0.4 percent to 98.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December, and a 0.1 percent decrease in November.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan continued its slightly upward trend through the first months of this year, after falling sharply following the March 2011 earthquake. The six-month growth rate in the index has returned to positive territory since October 2011. Meanwhile, the rate of growth in The Conference Board CEI for Japan has also recovered, but the index is still below its most recent peak reached in the beginning of 2011. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that economic activity should improve in the coming months.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2011				2012		6-month
	Nov		Dec		Jan		Jul to Jan

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	94.8		95.0	p	95.3	p
Percent Change	0.0		0.2	p	0.3	p	1.2	p
Diffusion	65.0		50.0		65.0		70.0

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	97.4	r	97.8	p	98.2	p
Percent Change	-0.1	r	0.4	p	0.4	p	3.6	p
Diffusion	75.0		62.5		100.0		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved