The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Increases

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Dec 06, 2011, 08:00 ET

NEW YORK, Dec. 6, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan increased 1.1 percent in October to 95.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decrease in September, and a 0.1 percent increase in August.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity increased in October by 0.3 percent to 100.3 (2004 = 100), following a 2.6 percent increase in September, and a 0.2 percent increase in August.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan has been fluctuating around a downward trend that started in March last year. However, in the last several months the LEI has rebounded, and its six-month growth rate has returned to positive territory. Meanwhile, the rate of growth in The Conference Board CEI for Japan has also picked up in the last six months as the impact of the natural disasters wanes. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that although near term risks to economic growth remain, economic activity should continue increasing in the coming months.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
			2011				6-month
	Aug		Sep		Oct		Apr to Oct

Leading Economic index (LEI)	94.6	r	94.2	p	95.2	p
Percent Change	0.1	r	-0.4	p	1.1	p	1.5	p
Diffusion	55.0		55.0		85.0		50.0

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	97.5	r	100.0	p	100.3	p
Percent Change	0.2	r	2.6	p	0.3	p	4.3	p
Diffusion	75.0		50.0		75.0		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved