The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Falls Sharply

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Jun 10, 2014, 09:00 ET

NEW YORK, June 10, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan declined 1.6 percent in April to 99.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in March and a 0.3 percent increase in February.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, declined 1.5 percent in April to 95.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in March, and a 0.1 percent decrease in February.

The recent declines in The Conference Board LEI and The Conference Board CEI for Japan have pushed their rates of growth into negative territory for the first time in 2014. In addition, the strengths among the components of both indexes have started to weaken over the past six months. Taken together, the behavior of both indexes suggests that the risk of a contraction in the coming months remains on the rise.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2014						6-month
	Feb		Mar		Apr		Oct to Apr
Leading Economic Index (LEI)	101.5	r	101.2	p	99.6	p
Percent Change	0.3	r	-0.3	p	-1.6	p	-1.3	p
Diffusion	65.0		50.0		30.0		60.0

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	96.8		97.4	p	95.9	p
Percent Change	-0.1		0.6	p	-1.5	p	-0.7	p
Diffusion	50.0		100.0		0.0		50.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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