The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Declines

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Jun 12, 2012, 09:00 ET

NEW YORK, June 12, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan declined 0.3 percent in April to 97.4 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in March, and a 1.2 percent increase in February.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.2 percent in April to 98.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in March, and a 0.4 percent increase in February.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan fell slightly in April after increasing sharply in the first quarter of the year and its six-month growth rate is faster than at the end of 2011. The LEI is still above its pre-earthquake level reached in February 2011. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Japan also declined slightly after four consecutive gains and its six-month growth remains slower than during the second half of last year. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that although the economy will continue expanding, the rapid pace of its growth is not likely to continue in the coming months.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	2012						6-month
	Feb		Mar		Apr		Oct to Apr
Leading Economic index (LEI)	96.6	r	97.7	p	97.4	p
Percent Change	1.2	r	1.1	p	-0.3	p	2.5	p
Diffusion	75.0		75.0		45.0		90.0

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	98.8	r	98.9	p	98.7	p
Percent Change	0.4	r	0.1	p	-0.2	p	1.2	p
Diffusion	75.0		75.0		50.0		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved