The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increases

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Jan 21, 2015, 04:00 ET

BRUSSELS, Jan. 21, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- NOTE: This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes was changed to 2010 = 100 from 2004 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at [email protected].

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.4 percent in November to 106.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in October, and a 0.2 percent increase in September.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in November to 104.9 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in October, and a 0.1 percent increase in September.

The LEI has improved moderately over the past three months, after declining sharply from June through August. However, its six-month growth rate remains negative. Meanwhile, the CEI has improved marginally over the past six months with strengths widespread among its components. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy should continue to improve at a moderate pace in the near-term, but downside risks still remain.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Germany

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

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Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2014			6-month
	Sep	Oct	Nov	May to Nov

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	105.9 p	105.8 p	106.2 p
Percent Change	0.2 p	-0.1 p	0.4 p	-1.6 p
Diffusion	64.3	71.4	85.7	42.9

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	104.4 r	104.7 r	104.9
Percent Change	0.1	0.3 r	0.2	0.5
Diffusion	75.0	75.0	62.5	75.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved