The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increases

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Aug 20, 2013, 04:00 ET

BRUSSELS, Aug. 20, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.2 percent in June to 105.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in May, and a 0.2 percent decrease in April.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in June to 107.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in May, and a 0.3 percent increase in April.

The LEI for Germany has increased in five out of the first six months of 2013, and the strengths among the indicators remain widespread. The CEI for Germany has also been on an upward trend since the beginning of this year, and as a result, its six-month growth rate keeps improving. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the German economy will likely continue expanding during the second half of 2013.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Germany

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2013						6-month
	Apr		May		Jun		Nov to Jun

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	104.8	p	105.2	p	105.4	p
Percent Change	-0.2	p	0.4	p	0.2	p	2.0	p
Diffusion	71.4		85.7		85.7		85.7

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	107.5	r	107.6	r	107.9
Percent Change	0.3		0.1		0.3		1.1
Diffusion	87.5		75.0		62.5		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved