The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increases

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Apr 23, 2012, 04:00 ET

BRUSSELS, April 23, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.4 percent in February to 104.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in January, and a 0.7 percent increase in December.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, decreased 0.1 percent in February to 106.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in January, and a 0.1 percent decrease in December.

The Conference Board LEI for Germany continued improving in February, though more slowly than it had during the previous two months. While its six-month growth rate climbed out of negative territory for the first time in seven months on the strength of financial and housing construction indicators, a slight majority of its components declined during this period. Meanwhile, the Conference Board CEI for Germany fell modestly this month. The improvement in the LEI suggests that the risk of a deep and prolonged contraction in economic activity may be decreasing.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Germany

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2011		2012				6-month
	Dec		Jan		Feb		Jul to Feb
Leading Economic Index (LEI)	103.3	p	104.1	p	104.5	p
Percent Change	0.7	p	0.8	p	0.4	p	0.0	p
Diffusion	78.6		71.4		57.1		42.9
Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	106.4	r	106.9	r	106.8
Percent Change	-0.1	r	0.5	r	-0.1		0.3
Diffusion	75.0		75.0		50.0		50.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved