The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increases

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Mar 21, 2012, 05:00 ET

BRUSSELS, March 21, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.3 percent in January to 103.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in December, and a 0.2 percent decrease in November.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in January to 106.8 (2004 = 100), following no change in December, and no change in November.

The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in January for the third time in the last four months. However, the six-month growth rate remains negative as a result of large declines in August and September of last year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany also advanced this month after staying flat between August and December 2011, but the six-month growth in the index has moderated from last year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will remain weak in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2011		2012	6-month
	Nov	Dec	Jan	Jul to Jan
Leading Economic Index (LEI)	102.8 r	103.5 p	103.8 p
Percent Change	-0.2 r	0.7 p	0.3 p	-2.7 p
Diffusion	35.7	78.6	71.4	14.3
Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	106.5	106.5 r	106.8
Percent Change	0.0	0.0 r	0.3	0.2
Diffusion	37.5	75.0	75.0	50.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved