The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increases

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Feb 18, 2011, 04:00 ET

BRUSSELS, Feb. 18, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.4 percent in December to 106.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in November, and a 0.7 percent increase in October.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in December to 104.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in November, and a 0.4 percent increase in October.

The Conference Board LEI for Germany has been on a rapidly rising trend for more than one and a half years now, amid widespread strength among its components. Despite a slightly slower monthly growth rate in December, its six-month growth rate has picked up slightly in recent months. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany has risen more modestly since May 2010, after increasing strongly earlier in 2010. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the moderate expansion in economic activity should continue.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
		2010				6-month
		Oct	Nov		Dec	Jun to Dec

Leading Economic index (LEI)		105.1 p	105.8 p		106.2 p
Percent Change		0.7 p	0.7 p		0.4 p	4.1 p
Diffusion		64.3	64.3		57.1	85.7

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)		104.6 r	104.5 r		104.7
Percent Change		0.4 r	-0.1		0.2	0.5
Diffusion		87.5	50.0		75.0	75.0


n.a. Not available	p Preliminary			r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board			All Rights Reserved