The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Declines

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Oct 15, 2014, 04:00 ET

BRUSSELS, Oct. 15, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 1.0 percent in August to 107.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decline in July, and a 0.4 percent decline in June.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, decline 0.3 percent in August to 108.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in July, and a 0.1 percent increase in June.

The decline in the LEI in August was its third consecutive decline and the largest monthly drop since the autumn of 2011. As a result its six-month growth rate has now fallen deeper into negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI also declined in August, and its six-month growth rate turned slightly negative. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity will likely remain on a slow to slightly negative growth path with continued downside risks in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

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Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2014						6-month
	Jun		Jul		Aug		Feb to Aug

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	109.3	p	108.8	p	107.7	p
Percent Change	-0.4	p	-0.5	p	-1.0	p	-1.9	p
Diffusion	42.9		42.9		28.6		42.9

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	108.4		108.6		108.3
Percent Change	0.1		0.2		-0.3		-0.1
Diffusion	75.0		50.0		50.0		50.0
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved