The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Declines

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Aug 21, 2012, 04:00 ET

BRUSSELS, Aug. 21, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 0.8 percent in June to 103.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in May, and a 0.5 percent decline in April.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.1 percent in June to 107.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in May, and a 0.3 percent decline in April.

The Conference Board LEI for Germany decreased throughout the second quarter, and, as a result, its six-month growth rate has fallen back into negative territory. However, the strengths are still more widespread than the weaknesses among its components. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany decreased in two out of three months in the second quarter, but its six-month growth rate is still positive. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes for Germany suggests that economic activity will probably continue to expand in the near term, though the rate of expansion will likely slow.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

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Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2012						6-month
	Apr		May		Jun		Oct to Jun

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	104.4	p	104.0	p	103.2	p
Percent Change	-0.5	p	-0.4	p	-0.8	p	-0.3	p
Diffusion	42.9		57.1		28.6		78.6

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	106.9	r	107.1	r	107.0
Percent Change	-0.3	r	0.2	r	-0.1		0.5
Diffusion	25.0		50.0		25.0		75.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved